North Korea Conflict

[This is my Username]

What's your take on the North Korea conflict? If they invade South Korea as they claim to intend to, we will have no choice but to move in and fight them, as South Korea is one of our allies.

My Government teacher thinks this could be good for America though. Not only will it give us a chance to strenghten our relationship with South Korea, but it might open up the opportunity to break relations with China. The U.S. owes so much money to China, that if we were to crush them, or let them be crushed by North Korea when they step in to stop the fighting (as the ycertainly will try to), then we eliminate ther debt that we're in to them. Also, that will boost the U.S. economy greatly as we will have an increased need for factory workers to produce weapons and ammunition, and we will also need to build factories and hire workers to make our own products instead of importing them from China.

This can go one of two ways...either we step in and survive, or we get crushed. One has to question whether or not President Obama will resort to using Nuclear weapons against North Korea or not. Will this cause them to open Nuclear fire on us? Will it cause other countries and nations to open Nuclear fire on us? One can only hope that these nations that have Nuclear capabilities will NOT launch against us due to how much damage we can cause to them before their missiles hit us.

What's your take on this?

[shai]

Nobody has taken North Korea seriously until somewhat recently. If they invade South Korea then all of their propaganda based on Kim-Jong-Il's delusions about how they're a self sufficient and strong nation will be proven to be a lie.

Im my opinion, North Korea would be like a company with a madman for a CEO (Howard Hughes comes to mind). The middle management is completely out of control and telling the CEO what he wants to hear ("Everything is great, sir, we're meeting all quotas and deadlines, the workers are happy, etc.") so they can maintain their lavish lifestyles, when in reality all the workers are starving and suffering under ridiculous rules and dogma and threat of penalty of death...yet they can't see their way clear to do better for themselves and either quit or vote the turkeys out...by force, if necessary.

The other companies (especially the one next door) are looking at this situation while shaking their heads and saying it's wrong and it's horrible and how can those poor bastards live like that, but there's not a lot they can do because middle management has guns and will fight off any intervention or hostile takeover attempts. All they can do is wait till the workers get sick and tired enough to cast their lot to fate and do something about it.

[This is my Username]

Nobody has taken North Korea seriously until somewhat recently. If they invade South Korea then all of their propaganda based on Kim-Jong-Il's delusions about how they're a self sufficient and strong nation will be proven to be a lie.

Im my opinion, North Korea would be like a company with a madman for a CEO (Howard Hughes comes to mind). The middle management is completely out of control and telling the CEO what he wants to hear ("Everything is great, sir, we're meeting all quotas and deadlines, the workers are happy, etc.") so they can maintain their lavish lifestyles, when in reality all the workers are starving and suffering under ridiculous rules and dogma and threat of penalty of death...yet they can't see their way clear to do better for themselves and either quit or vote the turkeys out...by force, if necessary.

The other companies (especially the one next door) are looking at this situation while shaking their heads and saying it's wrong and it's horrible and how can those poor bastards live like that, but there's not a lot they can do because middle management has guns and will fight off any intervention or hostile takeover attempts. All they can do is wait till the workers get sick and tired enough to cast their lot to fate and do something about it.

Exactly. Governments are too scared to intervene because NK has a million man army...literally, and they are not afraid to use it. Couple that with their recent display of nuclear capabilities, and hostile intentions to use these nukes and these governments that have the power to stop NK back off into the shadows even further.

If NK troops spill into and attack the DMZ (demilitarized zone) in Korea that we have 25,000 US troops stationed at...war will break out. The US, SK, and possibly China will all attack NK. Nukes will be launched from countries that have them, and the dawn of WWIII might be imminent.

This is fire that these governments are playing with, and everybody is wondering whether they know how not to get burned or not.

[shai]

The one thing that sort of makes sense is that the DPRK knows that they wouldn't stand a chance in a nuclear exchange, so the "these are for self-defense" line has a ring of truth to it even if only because they believe it. The problem is that no one's really looking to bomb them, and if someone did want to wipe them off of the map it would be because they did something monumentally stupid on their part.

They keep talking about "Western aggression" but THEY invaded South Korea...if they were the pacifists they claimed to be then they'd pull a few hundred thousand troops off of the border and actually try to settle some of their grievances with the rest of the world...but they aren't, and that's why no one takes them seriously.

[This is my Username]

The one thing that sort of makes sense is that the DPRK knows that they wouldn't stand a chance in a nuclear exchange, so the "these are for self-defense" line has a ring of truth to it even if only because they believe it. The problem is that no one's really looking to bomb them, and if someone did want to wipe them off of the map it would be because they did something monumentally stupid on their part.

They keep talking about "Western aggression" but THEY invaded South Korea...if they were the pacifists they claimed to be then they'd pull a few hundred thousand troops off of the border and actually try to settle some of their grievances with the rest of the world...but they aren't, and that's why no one takes them seriously.

Their like the kid that threatens violence and just stand there looking stupid. BUT, nobody really knows the power that they have within...the damage that they can cause. I think that if they really want to, they can DESTROY South Korea...forcing us to go to war with them. Well, technically speaking if South Korea is destroyed we can stay out of war with the North, but then we look bad to our OTHER allies.

It's a really touchy subject. I know that if we do go to war with Noth Korea...things will not be good at all.

[mountain dew]

I was pretty surprised that I didn't see this topic before now since it has been in the news for a few days... I was considering starting a topic on it, but you beat me to it.

I don't know what we should do about this, I think if there was an easy answer we would have already done something about it; there seems to be no easy solution to this problem... Only time will tell what will happen.

[shai]

Yeah,,,do nothing, wait for Kim Jong-Il to die and see what happens from there. Unfortunately, that kind of fucks over about 20 million people but considering the alternative...

The DPRK has tested a nuke before (in 2006). The reason the world needs to watch them is because the yield on this one was considerably bigger, but judging by the response (practically the whole world condemned the test) there's not too much to worry about.

[Testicular Catastrophe]

I somehow don't think NK would last very long against SK these days.

Sure, they'd mow down a couple of people near the border but eventually they'd hit a major internet trunk and all the Korean world of warcraft players (99% of everyone above 3 years of age in SK) would lose connection. NK would then be promptly destroyed by angry warcraftfags who lost their L70 ORC SHAMAN

[shai]

This is one of those threads where Christo-f usually steps in with some real information. Hopefully he'll do that, I trust what he has to say about these things.

The DPRK army is about 20% of the able bodied North Korean males...even though a good portion of their military tech is outdated, the last thing South Korea wants is to get run through by a million angry, brainwashed troops.

[Mercer]

North Korea based it's entire government, culture, and economy on war and military.
The people are brainwashed and every able bodied man has military training.
Only the strongest or best men are kept in it's regular army.
To top that off North Korea's citizens are completely oblivious to their situation through strict control of any outside information and brainwashed into blind patriotism.
They have a lot of underground tunnels and have prepared as best they can to fight indefinitely.
The only subway they have was built so far underground it's all most useless to go down that far to ride it.
We lost a lot of men just pushing them back to the border or Demilitarized zone in the 50's and it won't be another Iraq, it's no desert and not that easy.

They easily could fuck shit up over there, South Korea's capital Seoul is just a stones throw from the border and could be easily destroyed with conventional weaponry from that distance.
Believe it or not with all our money and military might, any warfare in that region would not be pretty or short at all, and would rape the worlds economy.
That's why we haven't finished the job and invaded in the last 50 years of taunting and they know it.
They regularly kidnap Japanese and South Korean citizens and even snagged a few B list celebrities.
The only reason they have existed this long is they use the fear situation to blackmail the rest of the world.
Without Chinese and Russian support their economic situation has become very dire and war/blackmail may be the only way for them to survive.

[This is my Username]

Mercer's right...we're all right so far. This shit is so complicated that it's not even funny. NK is saying that an attack on SK is imminent...which means us getting dragged into it is...imminent. :gulp:

[UrbAn_ArT]

north korea won't do anything, and china cannot afford to get involved anymore, their economy runs off the us. even if they have a million man army, it's been proven in combat now adays that numbers won't matter, i'm in the marine corp and am confident that we can take this million man army.....ooohrah

[This is my Username]

north korea won't do anything, and china cannot afford to get involved anymore, their economy runs off the us. even if they have a million man army, it's been proven in combat now adays that numbers won't matter, i'm in the marine corp and am confident that we can take this million man army.....ooohrah

The point at hand here is not whether we can or cannot win a battle against North Korea. The point at hand here is what will come from a battle with them? You have to remember that if by some chance we do end up fighting North Korea...nukes could be launched...by both sides of the war.

[viperface]

I agree that waiting is the best action at the moment.

However if the sanctions/embargos against NK work too well and start eating away the upper class/military infrastructure, NK might want to invade south korea rather than wait for their own demise.
In the case of a full scale war, I don't think SK would really stand a chance even with US troops in the country. Then again it depends on how badly US is ready to get involved. Fact is, war with NK would definitely cost a lot more soldiers' lives than what US has been ready to sacrifice recently.

Bad thing is, NK isn't far from stone age. It'd take more than precision bombing or couple of nukes to motivate Kim to surrender, as they don't exactly take care of their own citizens anyway. A war would be disastrous.

[Power Bill]

i am in Tokyo- GULP is right. Wish me luck.

[This is my Username]

Viperface is exactly right. There's so many things at stake right now. If we end up getting into a war wirh North Korea, it will be very bad for us. Not only will they fight to the death, but they won't hesitate to use their newly developed weapons. Not to mention they have a lot of hatred for the US because we've been in a 56 - year stalemate with them as the war with North Korea never actually ended. They've known for 56 years that we can't spare teh resources to attack them and they know it.

Also, as you said Kim isn't going to surrender. He's reaching teh age where he knows he won't last much longer in the first place, so why should he care if a war kills him? I think that this is getting bad, and it's getting bad fast. Maybe Obama should start preparing for the worst...they already put the US military on standy.

Power Bill: now might be the time to move to Hawaii or someplace like that...things could get ugly over there really quick. Good luck man, and stay safe.

[shai]

Viperface is exactly right. There's so many things at stake right now. If we end up getting into a war wirh North Korea, it will be very bad for us. Not only will they fight to the death, but they won't hesitate to use their newly developed weapons. Not to mention they have a lot of hatred for the US because we've been in a 56 - year stalemate with them as the war with North Korea never actually ended. They've known for 56 years that we can't spare teh resources to attack them and they know it.

We could turn NK into a parking lot but South Korea doesn't want that. The odds are good that if there were an invasion, a very large portion of the NK Army would take one look at how the South Koreans are living and say "Wait a fucking minute...we've been lied to for how long now?" The DPRK is one of the longest con jobs in history. As soon as people start seeing what's going on in the rest of the world first hand, then they're going to wise up pretty quick.

I'm not a big fan of capitalism, but letting your country starve because you don't want to admit you're wrong is obviously the greater evil.

[This is my Username]

We could turn NK into a parking lot but South Korea doesn't want that. The odds are good that if there were an invasion, a very large portion of the NK Army would take one look at how the South Koreans are living and say "Wait a fucking minute...we've been lied to for how long now?" The DPRK is one of the longest con jobs in history. As soon as people start seeing what's going on in the rest of the world first hand, then they're going to wise up pretty quick.

I'm not a big fan of capitalism, but letting your country starve because you don't want to admit you're wrong is obviously the greater evil.

Damn...that was logical and pilotically correct as all hell. I honestly do not know what to say to that.

Nice, man.

[viperface]

The odds are good that if there were an invasion, a very large portion of the NK Army would take one look at how the South Koreans are living and say "Wait a fucking minute...we've been lied to for how long now?"

I was thining about this as well and it's probably one reason why NK hasn't attacked. If they do attack, I'm afraid this might also be enough of a reason to attempt to bomb South Korean cities to bedrock before occupying forces can actually see the standards of living. I remember reading somewhere that they have mad artillery aimed at Seoul at all times, just ready to level the whole city down when the green light flashes.

However NK troops might still be exceptionally vulnerable to any well-placed propaganda. And it's impossible to destroy every building of every city anyway, there's still the suburbia, countryside etc. Then again they might be just told that NK is suffering only because of UN sanctions or just lie them about how the enemy has been sabotaging shit for ages, or how we're just living off of 3rd world slavery and exploiting the proletariat of poor countries etc.

[This is my Username]

I did not know the part about the artillery aimed at Seoul. Interesting.

Apparently things are calming down a little...it's "supposedly" a "scare tactic" by Kim. I personally think he's waiting for our guard to drop again so he can hit us. He knows that we've had a week to prepare for the worst already...attacking now when we're 100% ready is a death sentence for Koreans, as we'll turn all of Korea into a hole in the ground.

[dreaken1993]

I think it is dumb on both sides if nk attacks us with their missles or invades sk we will help sk then china will get upset and then russia will jump in

i mean this is what the elites want man if nk continues to threaten other countries and or invade sk the us has precedence to invade nk and take it over then that will cause other powers to get mad and thus will be the precursor to ww3

just a while ago china started building up its naval fleet incase they did invade sk and we attack and russia started doing the same thing

i think we are forcing Russia into conflict i mean were tryna control the ME and we support Israel which will eventually attack Iran and Palestine IMO and if they attack Iran Russia will jump in and then well jump in because were essentially allies with Israel

plus we keep positioning missle and military bases in countries near russia

jmo

[frankiefiver]

Viperface is exactly right. There's so many things at stake right now. If we end up getting into a war wirh North Korea, it will be very bad for us. Not only will they fight to the death, but they won't hesitate to use their newly developed weapons. Not to mention they have a lot of hatred for the US because we've been in a 56 - year stalemate with them as the war with North Korea never actually ended. They've known for 56 years that we can't spare teh resources to attack them and they know it.

Also, as you said Kim isn't going to surrender. He's reaching teh age where he knows he won't last much longer in the first place, so why should he care if a war kills him? I think that this is getting bad, and it's getting bad fast. Maybe Obama should start preparing for the worst...they already put the US military on standy.

Power Bill: now might be the time to move to Hawaii or someplace like that...things could get ugly over there really quick. Good luck man, and stay safe.

There is not going to be a war.

[This is my Username]

There is not going to be a war.

You're sure of thisss....how..exactly?

[dreaken1993]

he watched the msm tell him and found out

[CACashRefund]

I think it is dumb on both sides if nk attacks us with their missles or invades sk we will help sk then china will get upset and then russia will jump in

Russia jumping in to a war involving North Korea is unlikely at best. It doesnt stand to gain much by doing that.

Korea falls under China's sphere of influence. So if anybody is going to jump in its going to be China but even then that's up for debate. China in the 1950's is a different country from China today.

As far as us trying to provoke Russia into a conflict i think youre interpreting the moves the US is making in a skewed way. The US doesnt need to provoke Russia into a conflict because i dont think the US considers Russia as an equal. If anything its the US consolidating its power in the aftermath of the Cold War in order to have bases and friendly nations in place should something like that occur again be it against Iran,Venezuela, China, or what have you.

That being said, if you guys havent already you should read up on the Korean War. It may answer some questions as to whats going on now.

[dreaken1993]

but i heard that russia was now in good with china and with the whole fact that they were building up their armies and shit idk i think though that china wouldnt go to war with the us yet yet because we owe them so much in debt that it would be a waste

but i think lil kimmy is just blowing off some steam and tryna be look at as much of a threat as other countries and the msm is pumping it to continue to fear mongur so if something does happens and we invade or put our hands in nk shit the puplic would be behind it... maybe

[dreaken1993]

i think china wont get in a war with us becuase we owe them s much in debt it would be a waste to loose that money and gain an enemy

i just think kimmy is tryna make other countries see that hes as powerfull as them and the msm keeps pumping the story to fear monger people so if some shit does happen the public would be behind a war

[This is my Username]

I think this is all going to blow over.

[dreaken1993]

i think its mostly just fear mongering

[This is my Username]

It's North Korea being...well, being...North Korea. They're just trying to scare people into thinking they're so badass.

[dreaken1993]

and then the msm bulk it up to have another deadly terrorist communist threat story

[CACashRefund]

In addition to North Koreas nukes, its special forces are something to be reckoned with as well.

Highly trained and indoctrinated theyre no joke


The guerrilla tactics, and mountains tactics are the basic tactics in the North Korean Force’s principal doctrine, principal strategy and preemptive surprise strike against South Korea. So, North Korean Special Forces are not mere special forces in the globally common idea, but also are basic tactical units with equal status to regular forces. Furthermore, one of their most powerful units is substantially under direct control of the national top leader, Kim Jon Il.

(1) North Korean Force’s principal doctrine

North Korean Forces’ Principal Doctrine is the “Combination of Regular and Irregular Tactics” even in present days. This comes from the fact that the root of North Korean Force is the irregular force founded by Kim Il Sung for armed conflict against Japan.

(2) North Korean Forces’ Principal Strategy

North Korean Force’s principal strategy is the “Cubic Strategy”. The Cubic Strategy is the combination of ‘regular and irregular tactics’, ‘big and small units’ and ‘new and old-fashioned arms ’.

(3) Missions of Special Forces in Preemptive Surprise Strike against South Korea

It is said that the following 3 missions are given to Special Forces:
①form the second fight line on the southern side of DMZ ,by using the underground tunnels,
② make whole of South Korea a battle field at the same time by performing airborne, air maneuvering , landing and guerrilla penetrating operations,
③legalize the preemptive surprise strike by causing to request the North Korean support by disguised guerrillas to make internal disturbances in South Korea by penetration of Special Forces.

http://www.drc-jpn.org/AR-6E/fujimoto-e02.htm

[CACashRefund]

Heres an old article


5 killed in shoot-out between S. Korean troops, infiltrators
submarine

November 5, 1996
Web posted at: 1:30 p.m. EST (1830 GMT)

SEOUL, South Korea (CNN) -- South Korean troops shot and killed two suspected North Korean infiltrators Tuesday, but lost three men in the fierce gun battle.

The slain North Koreans were believed to be among the last three infiltrators still at large after their submarine was stranded off the east coast of South Korea on September 17. Of the 26 men believed to have been aboard the sub, one has been captured and 24 others have been found dead or killed by South Korean troops.
dead North Koreans

Two South Korean officers and a soldier were killed when the North Koreans opened fire with M-16 automatic rifles and hurled grenades at pursuing South Korean troops about 6 miles from the border with the communist north, Seoul officials said. About a dozen other South Korean soldiers were wounded.

The North Koreans were wearing South Korean army fatigues and carrying the standard South Korean army M-16 rifles. South Korean troops are continuing an intensive search of the area for the remaining suspect.
items on display

Seoul's special forces had been combing the rugged east coast mountains just south of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) since Monday when the two North Koreans fled after being stopped by southern soldiers, he said.

[CACashRefund]

* A North Korean shark class sub ran aground near the city of Kangnung, on the east coast of South Korea. A taxi driver came across two "prowlers" on the night (0055 hours) of September 19, 1996. He also noticed an odd vehicle just off shore and contacted police. A massive manhunt was begun, which ultimately ended with one captured North Korean Submarine, a captured North Korean Commando, 13 North Koreans killed by South Korean Forces (and another 11 killed by their own team) and 17 South Korean dead (13 Military and four civilians). Maps and Weapons ranging from assault rifles to RPG-7's were recovered from the sub.

* On June 24, 1998 near Sokch'o, a North Korean submarine was spotted, stranded with its propeller fouled by fishing nets. The South Korean Navy took it under tow and over the period of two days moved it to the port of Kang-Reung. South Korean EOD and Special Mission Unit members boarded the vessel where it was found the entire crew had died, some killed by others who later killed themselves. As with the earlier submarine, assault rifles and RPG-7's were dfound in the hull, and in this case explosives were found.

* On December 18th, 1998 members of the South Korean Army Coast guard spotted a high-speed boat pass by 2km off shore using an infrared optical scope. Patrol boats rushed to the scene and gave chase in an effort that ultimately saw action by eight patrol boats, P-3C II Orion and S-2E Tracker anti-submarine aircraft, Lynk helicopters, CN-235 cargo aircraft operating as flare ships, and a flight of F-5 fighter/bombers. After repeated orders to surrender were finally answered with gunfire, one of the SOuth Korean patrol boats opened fire and hit the fleeing vessel with three 40mm grenades. Five depth charges dropped in its path sealed its fate and the vessel sank. The body of one armed agent wearing a wetsuit was recovered a couple of hours later, an autopsy revealed that he had died before the boat had sunk by ingestion of a poison capsule. An intensive search for the vessel's mother ship was mounted but nothing found.

* In December of 2001 ships of the Japanese Coast Guard sank a suspicious vessel after it refused to stop and fired upon them with machine guns. The boat was later raised and determined to be a North Korean surveillance vessel designed to look like a fishing trawler. It had special communications and surveillance gear, however, as well as secret double doors in the stern that allowed a fast, semi-submersible boat to launch and recover. It was also heavily armed, carrying russian Ilga-2 anti-aircraft missiles and RPG-7's.

[christo-f]

CACash, you kind of contradicted yourself a little bit here. First you say that the DPRK SF are no joke and then you post numerous stories of their failures. Of course, how are we going to know of their successes if they were indeed successful. However, these stories above have just indicated that they are not afraid of dying.

DPRK has not been in any real conflict (save these above posted SF/spying incidents and two small, contained naval clashes on the northern limit line (NLL)) since 1953. The US has a huge amount of all kinds of experience since then and both ROK and Japan have had military deployments for the UN or other supportive roles in places like Iraq, Afghanistan, Africa, etc. So to say that the DPRK SF are no joke is to only go off what is written about their training, not any kind of actual track record. Something you need to keep in mind when assessing a combat force.

[christo-f]

what on earth is this God's Child shit and how on earth can it edit my post 9 minutes before I've even pressed send?

[This is my Username]

what on earth is this God's Child shit and how on earth can it edit my post 9 minutes before I've even pressed send?

That happens to me sometimes too. Most of the time if you refresh the page or check back munites later, it's gone.

This is why I have said that a ground war with North Korea will take A LOT of US soldiers' lives. We need to try to avoid war with them at all costs, because though they are known to bluff and flex their muscles as scare tactics, they still have the second most army of the face of the earth (in my opinion anyways).

[christo-f]

This Is My Username:

If you have accurately captured what your teacher said in class the dude needs to go back to teaching wholistic medicine at his local community college. What he said was total crap and displays very little knowledge in how even the most basic aspects of this kind of issue works.

DPRK Grand Strategy
Be recognised as a nuclear power and as a result be seen as a first class power on the global stage. Secondary goal is to continue the line of power as to how the current leadership wishes.

DPRK Tactics Used to Achieve Grand Strategy
Construct a nuclear deterrent in order to deter any greater power from attacking and deposing the current leadership and also use the implicit threat of nuclear attack to compel other nations in the region to create policy favourable to the DPRK.

Variables Facing DPRK Strategy and Tactics
China is DPRK's only real friend in the world. DPRK trade is at about USD$3.82bn and 75% of that is with China that DPRK runs at a USD$1.28bn deficit. So it's pretty obvious that DPRK is completely dependent on China for trade and most of all for imports (such as food, fuel and steel) that if cut off would create acute and severe hardship for the citizens of DPRK. In short, China supports the DPRK.

Why does China support DPRK?
Two main reasons; DPRK is a useful buffer zone between China and ROK/US forces. If DPRK falls there will be at least 5-10 million refugees poring over the border into China. Secondary considerations for China is that when the US approaches China looking for assistance in dealing with the DPRK, China will get something from the US for their help. Also, whist the US is focused elsewhere it stops them from paying 100% attention on China.

What does China think about DPRK Testing Nukes?
They're not overly fond of it. Last test in 2006 resulted in China backing UN sanctions, froze some DPRK assets in Macau and implemented a strict inspection policy of DPRK vessels in CHinese/HK ports. China does not want a nuclear power neighbour, nobody does. Secondly, the more DPRK militarises the more ROK and Japan will have to improve their armies. This means ballistic and theatre missile defense shields, greater C4SIR/infotech, etc. That means that China will become weaker by comparison if it doesn't do the same thing and China wants to put that money elsewhere right now. So China does not want an arms race in its region and that's what DPRK is forcing by testing nukes and missiles.



Russia
In this situation Russia doesn't mean squat. They have quite minor relations with DPRK and just like China sure as hell don't want some one else in the neighbourhood to have nukes. If you have a gun and your neighbour only has a knife you are the stronger one. But if your neighbour goes and buys a gun then you're both equal again, he has effectively reduced your power by making himself stronger. That's what DPRK is doing to everyone around them by both having nukes and starting an arms race. Russia will back UN sanctions as will China.

If there was a war between the US and DPRK there is no way Russia would get involved. Why would they? Russia already has its hands full dealing with NATO expansion on its Eastern and Baltic borders and Caucuses region. Russia doesn't mind DPRK giving the US shit as it divides US attention and allows russia some room to move, but it does not want nukes and sure as hell won't get involved in a war.


Will There Be a War on the Korean Peninsula?
More than likely not. Nobody wants war, least of US and DPRK.

US doesn't want war because the DPRK really is a distraction at the best of times. DPRK has no strategic resources like oil/gas, uranium, ore, arable land, large fresh water lakes and it isn't even strategically placed enough to add to what the US already has. US already has 25 000 troops in ROK and a naval base in Japan with Marines, etc. It has all the strategic placement it needs in the region and even that is more important for China than russia as Moscow and the other population capitals are on the other side of Asia. The only thing the US has to gain out of war with DPRK is getting rid of a little annoying cunt called Kim. And that will come at great cost.

ROK doesn't want war with DPRK because it will probably get flattened. DPRK has a huge fucking mass of artillery and missiles pointed straight at Seoul, which is only a few kilometers from the border/DMZ. If war were to start Seoul would take a massive beating before those guns could be taken out. Only a massive operation of multiple strikes on command (Pyongyang), communications, ammo dumps and gun placings could take that out before they did unacceptable damage to ROK and the build of those required forces would gain too much attention to make it feasible. Secondly, if ROK/US was to win the war, who's going to take care of the 22 million plus people who already don't have enough food and energy with a coherent government? War is not an option for ROK.

DPRK doesn't want war because they will inevitably lose. Sure, they will smash Seoul, they will hurt Japan and possibly give the US a black eye by hitting their bases in the region (if they can get a missile on target, which is questionable). But, they will eventually fall and that's the last thing any government wants. DPRK will take it as close to the limit as possible (brinksmanship) by launching another ICBM (in about 2 weeks give or take) and another larger (this next one should be 20 kilotons) nuclear test in about a month or two. They will also more than likely instigate a limited naval clash on the NLL with ROK navy and will start moving troops around and sending armed guards into Panmunjom.

The only real risk of war is that some one will walk to close to a red line somewhere and things will spiral out of control but it is quite unlikely that will happen.

DPRK knows that the US is tied up in the Middle East, South Asia and Eastern Europe/Caucuses. The US doesn't have the bandwidth to make serious moves on DPRK right now and Pyongyang is milking that window for all it can get. It will take this time to create as serious a crisis as possible all the while improving its nuclear capability. When it suits DPRK they will return to the negotiating table albeit in a stronger position.

DPRK has said the NLL no longer exists, nullified the 1953 Armistice Agreement, tested nukes, launched any number of short, mid and intercontinental missiles and will more than likely push a few more limits such as restart the Yongbyon reprocessing plant before its done. So when it comes around to negotiating there will be so many immediate matters needing attending to that it will be able to trade off a few of them for hefty concessions..., the main one being recognition as a nuclear power.

That has always been the #1 game plan of DPRK, that is their main agenda. However their is another variable in the mix right now as well. In August last year Kim Jong-il suffered a serious stroke and is yet to fully recover. Kim also has not sufficiently prepared one of his sons to take over from him. This means if KJI dies or grows weaker there will be a power vacuum. As with every government there are groups and factions all with differing opinions and agendas. Since Lee Myung-bak came to power in ROK and removed a lot of the ROK concessions to DPRK the moderates in Pyongyang have lost influence (probably executed) and the hardliners in the military have started pushing. This is leading many to believe that KJI is now playing super tough in order to show he's still not to be fucked with, to gain favour and support from the military hardliners and keep anyone from other nations at a good distance whilst he tries to consolidate power.No one really knows if it's true or not but it sounds plausible to me.



Guys, these situations are extremely complicated and I've really only just covered the basics. What I'd really like to get across to you is that before you have an opinion on this kind of thing you have to read heaps of stuff. It's fine to have a chat about and throw ideas around but don't ever fool yourself that you understand complex issues if you haven't read extensively on all the different facets and opinion. Hope this went a little way to doing that for you.

[christo-f]

Oh and one more thing...

US going to war with China to release them from debt is the stupidest fucking thing I've ever come across in regards to anything..., ever.

I'm not even going to bother explaining the multitude of reasons why. If your teacher actually said that he is a dead set fucking idiot and should not be teaching that subject.

[shai]

Guys, these situations are extremely complicated and I've really only just covered the basics. What I'd really like to get across to you is that before you have an opinion on this kind of thing you have to read heaps of stuff. It's fine to have a chat about and throw ideas around but don't ever fool yourself that you understand complex issues if you haven't read extensively on all the different facets and opinion. Hope this went a little way to doing that for you.

Which is why I said "I wonder what christo-f has to say about this." I don't mind bullshitting about NK, to me it's like talking about someone's asshole neighbor.

[This is my Username]

Great post, Cristo.

I don't know what to think anymore about this situation...I just hope this war blows over and never gets off of the ground...I have friends and family in the military. :(

[christo-f]

Which is why I said "I wonder what christo-f has to say about this." I don't mind bullshitting about NK, to me it's like talking about someone's asshole neighbor.

Yeah, absolutely. Having a chin wag about interesting stuff is the go, especially about freaky shit like DPRK. I just get disappointed when dudes go round saying what's what when they have seen a CCN news broadcast. This type of subject is the only thing I'll ever speak confidently on (with a decent amount of disclaimers and caveats!) because it's really the only think I know about. Well...., that and pulling Asian chicks! :cool:

[christo-f]

Great post, Cristo.

I don't know what to think anymore about this situation...I just hope this war blows over and never gets off of the ground...I have friends and family in the military. :(

YEs, but if you look closely I've left out a pretty important detail...., what IS America going to do about it? Surely they won't stop at sanctions because there's no way in hell they will want DPRK to get to the point where they can weaponise a nuclear device. That's something that we will have to discuss as this week goes on and the UNSC talk shop and comments are made in the media (one which Gates made yesterday) and what Japan Does, China does, etc. etc.

The people who will be watching this the closest are the Iranians.

[shai]

Christo-f, did you ever get to see the "VICE Guide To North Korea"?

http://www.vbs.tv/video.php?id=1438428757

That's the first part, all the other ones are in the sidebar. Everyone in this thread should watch this, it's really fucking strange.

[Pet]

They keep talking about "Western aggression" but THEY invaded South Korea...if they were the pacifists they claimed to be then they'd pull a few hundred thousand troops off of the border and actually try to settle some of their grievances with the rest of the world...but they aren't, and that's why no one takes them seriously.

Just like Russia vs Georgia in August.

[dreaken1993]

which way do you think that conflict played out do you think it was g v r or r v g

[abcs]

dudes a douchebag... they need to give him a breast enhancement job... some Double D hookups... put a weave in his shit and a big tattoo of a penis on his back. Stick him in a zoo and let people throw pennies at thim

[This is my Username]

dudes a douchebag... they need to give him a breast enhancement job... some Double D hookups... put a weave in his shit and a big tattoo of a penis on his back. Stick him in a zoo and let people throw pennies at thim

What the hell?

[dreaken1993]

that was out of no where

[christo-f]

dudes a douchebag... they need to give him a breast enhancement job... some Double D hookups... put a weave in his shit and a big tattoo of a penis on his back. Stick him in a zoo and let people throw pennies at thim

Got a propsicle outa me!

Nice work, will forward the suggestion on to the relevant parties.

[christo-f]

Christo-f, did you ever get to see the "VICE Guide To North Korea"?

http://www.vbs.tv/video.php?id=1438428757

That's the first part, all the other ones are in the sidebar. Everyone in this thread should watch this, it's really fucking strange.

Yeah, I've seen it. If I remember correctly there is a super beautiful girl who can play pool retardedly well..., have contemplated doing an infil-snatch-exfil to marry her a few times. Hot AND can smash the pool table...., damn.

Kim, Mugabe, Burma Junta, etc. If there is a hell, I hope they have a whole floor booked for each of them.

[christo-f]

China Suspends North Korea Exchanges, Yonhap Reports (Update1)
Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Kyung Bok Cho and Dune Lawrence

June 1 (Bloomberg) -- China suspended government exchanges with North Korea after Kim Jong-Il’s regime last week tested a nuclear device and fired short-range missiles, Yonhap News said.

China has halted plans to send officials to North Korea and won’t accept visits from Kim’s government either, the Korean- language news agency said today, citing unidentified diplomatic sources in Beijing.

China’s foreign ministry has said the country “resolutely opposes” North Korea’s nuclear test. China on May 25 agreed with the U.S., Japan and Russia to work toward a United Nations Security Council resolution censuring North Korea. The U.S. and Japan want the statement to call for cutting the communist country’s global financial ties, UN diplomats said.

China’s foreign ministry didn’t immediately respond to a faxed request for comment today.

[CACashRefund]

CACash, you kind of contradicted yourself a little bit here. First you say that the DPRK SF are no joke and then you post numerous stories of their failures. Of course, how are we going to know of their successes if they were indeed successful. However, these stories above have just indicated that they are not afraid of dying.


I didnt contradict myself, my argument wasnt that they were undefeated on the battlefield or that they were some sort of super soldiers. I said they were highly trained and indoctrinated.

Killing your fellow service men and then yourself in order not to be captured by the enemy isnt something that a conscripted peasant just does out of his own initiative. The level of political indoctrination and propaganda these men are given makes these guys something else.

ROK soldiers killed two suspected North Korean infiltrators, but lost three men in the fierce gun battle.

I would say these guys are trained well enough as shown by their ability to inflict more losses than they took.

Granted, this is one single incident but as you pointed out there have only been minor skirmishes between the koreas so i dont have a whole lot of material to work with here.

[T.T Boy]

i seriously dount any country even china would like to go against north korea. they have a massive army, very highly disciplined but who knows, they could easily give up, or fight very well in fear any one who does not will end up in a work camp.

the us can not afford another war, i doubt anyone would support that war.
especially SK as they are scared of the economic burden of millions of north koreans coming over and them being left to deal with all of those people. financially that would be a nightmare for them. it could essentially amount to SK supporting two countries.

[christo-f]

China would make mince meat of DPRK in a matter of days. They have the man power, the air power and the sea/missile capacity to change DPRK reality in a matter of days because DPRK really has nothing aimed at China and is not prepared for that outcome. But of course China wouldn't attack for all the reasons I've written above.

[christo-f]

There's the provocative exercise I suggested would come. Soon we will have another ICBM launch across Japanese territory followed by another nuke test that this time will be over 20 kilotons. There may also be armed guards sent into Panmunjom peace village and more than likely a naval clash on the Northern Limit Line.

N.Korean Navy 'Steps Up West Sea Activities'

North Korea has apparently instructed naval troops in the West Sea to stockpile more than twice the normal amount of ammunition and artillery shells and staged an unprecedented surprise landing exercise.

A South Korean military source on Monday said the North Korean military has recently instructed patrol boats and coast artillery batteries under the West Sea Navy fleet in Nampo to stockpile more than double the amount of ammunition and shells they keep in normal times. That could be preparation for a possible clash with South Korea.

The surprise landing exercise on the west coast involved high-speed air-cushioned landing craft. The same source said a landing exercise during the month of June was unprecedented in North Korea. "The exercise seems to be a kind of saber-rattling," he said. He suggested that the North is attempting to show South Korea that it could carry out a provocation by a surprise landing.

But South Korean military authorities do not necessarily treat the moves as decisive signs that an armed provocation is impending, though they are watching developments closely. Since a statement calling for an "all-out confrontation posture" against the South on Jan. 17, the People's Army has apparently not given instructions for troops to enter a quasi-wartime state.

[christo-f]

Aand here's confirmation as to why this is all going on. KJI is getting the military hardliners behind KJU for a successful transition and no challengers. Once that is is set they will look at returning to negotiations from a stronger position with more points of leverage against the US.




Spy agency confirms N.K. leader's third son as successor: lawmakers

By Kim Hyun
SEOUL, June 2 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's National Intelligence Service has confirmed that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il designated his third and youngest son, Jong-un, as his successor shortly after the country's second nuclear test, lawmakers here said Tuesday.

The confirmation, given to members of the National Assembly information and intelligence committee on Monday, is the first word from the Seoul government regarding North Korea's next leader following months of media speculation. Predictions that the elder Kim, 67, would soon designate his heir have circulated since he reportedly suffered a stroke last summer.

"I was notified by the government yesterday that there are such ongoings (of succession), and that they (North Koreans) make loyalty pledges to Kim Jong-un," Park Jie-won of the main opposition Democratic Party, a member of the intelligence committee and close aide to former President Kim Dae-jung, said in a radio interview.

Sources told Yonhap News Agency on Monday that immediately after the May 25 test, Kim notified the country's key institutions -- the Korean People's Army, the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly and the Cabinet -- as well as its diplomatic missions abroad that he has designated Kim Jong-un as his successor.

The reported notification followed intelligence acquired by Yonhap four months earlier that the senior Kim chose Jong-un as his heir and sent a directive to the Workers' Party leadership on January 8, Jong-un's birthday.

The Dong-A Ilbo, a leading South Korean daily, ran a similar report on the official notification on Tuesday.

In a meeting with the parliament intelligence committee in February, the National Intelligence Service said another hereditary power transfer "appears feasible" but did not comment on reports of Kim Jong-un's designation.

Lawmakers said Tuesday the intelligence agency told them those media reports "appeared to be true" and that it cited a diplomatic message sent to North Korean missions abroad to notify Jong-un as the next leader.

Jong-un, in his mid-20s, was born to Kim's third wife, Ko Yong-hi, who died of breast cancer at age 51 in 2004. Jong-un is believed to have been educated at the International School of Berne and is said to be a fan of NBA basketball. After his return to Pyongyang in his late teens, the North has kept him under a shroud of secrecy and very little is known about his character.

Kim Jong-il was 32 when he was tapped as successor by his father and the nation's founder, Kim Il-sung, in a general meeting of the Workers' Party in 1974. He took over after his father's death in 1994.

Jong-un's succession, if actualized, will mark the second father-to-son power transfer in the North, unprecedented in the history of communist nations.




Kim Jong-il's 3rd Son Tapped as Next N.Korean Leader
Chosun Ilbo



Word out of Pyongyang indicates that Kim Jong-il's third son Jeong-woon has been officially designated the next North Korean leader. Several intelligence sources say that the designation of the successor was passed down to North Korea's Workers Party, Supreme People's Assembly and military right after the North carried out a nuclear test last week.

There are reports that high-level officials in North Korea had been confidentially notified of the decision, but this is the first time the news was delivered to mid-level apparatchiks. Kim Jong-il apparently made the choice early this year.

[christo-f]

Expect these sorts of provocations to continue and possibly/probably result in a contained naval clash. Next on the agenda will be another ICBM launch that will be followed, probably around a month later by another, larger nuke test and heightened tensions of the border. This will all subside by early Oct. (not before Oct. 10, though) where DPRK will look to negotiate. There is also the issue of the two American journalists in gaol that were tried today, they will be used as bargaining chips to make DPRK look all humanitarian.



N. Korean boat intrudes into S. Korean side of western sea border

By Sam Kim
SEOUL, June 4 (Yonhap) -- A North Korean patrol boat intruded Thursday into the South Korean side of their western sea border and returned after nearly an hour, an official here said.

The intrusion took place at 2:47 p.m. high amid tension in the Yellow Sea after North Korea warned last week against the safety of South Korean vessels operating near the Northern Limit Line (NLL).

South Korean naval forces sounded a warning signal, prompting the North Korean vessel to return at 3:38 p.m., a Joint Chiefs of Staff official said in Seoul.

North Korea insists the NLL, drawn by a U.S. commander at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War that ended in a truce, should be drawn farther south.

Deadly naval battles erupted between the Koreas near the NLL in 1999 and 2002.

[DPMS556]

NK is "testing the waters"

[Telo]

Dammit. I didn't realize this thread was in here.

Anyways, a couple of different areas to touch upon here.



Word out of Pyongyang indicates that Kim Jong-il's third son Jeong-woon has been officially designated the next North Korean leader. Several intelligence sources say that the designation of the successor was passed down to North Korea's Workers Party, Supreme People's Assembly and military right after the North carried out a nuclear test last week.

There are reports that high-level officials in North Korea had been confidentially notified of the decision, but this is the first time the news was delivered to mid-level apparatchiks. Kim Jong-il apparently made the choice early this year.

I'm thinking that this mystery kid who is 26 (who only has one picture circulating in the media) will be much more promising than his father. Sources say that he was educated in Switzerland under a false name for a brief part of his life. Also, for whatever reason Kim Jong Il has really treated his children much differently than he was treated himself as a boy. These kids HAVE been outside the country and have seen what the world is outside of DPRK. I believe off the top of my head he has three boys and several girls. (and if my memory serves me correctly one of the boys may of defected to the south? or something like that? could be totally wrong on that). Whether this has any effect on his Kim Jong Suns reputable overwhelmingly "in your face" personality is beyond me. I guess Kim Jong Sun is just like his father too.. He weighs over 200 lbs, eats like a savage, and already has diabetes.

To TTboys reponse..

Yes, war with DPRK would be a war like we've never seen before. I say this because the DPRK is HEAVILY HEAVILY equipped with Military power. They have a standing army of just over 1.2 million and another 300k or so on reserve. Being in DPRKs position currently has some ups and downs. AS westerners we see them as an impoverished country that could colllapse at any time, but the reality of it all is that they sink ALL their resources into their military and military personnel. this is why the average citizen can't obtain beef for protein to stay healthy, because it is all going to the army to feed them and keep them strong.

War with the DPRK would be a disaster. One thing that the DPRK has over other super powers such as China and Russia is political will.. They would be more than happy to see the US leveled by Nukes, as it would have absolutely no affect on the DPRK. China and Russia couldn't do that for well known economic and social reasons. Of course this would never happen ultimately because of once again, well known reasons. War with them probably wont happen anytime soon and if it does, it will be a joint SK/US invasion of the North. China and Russia have trade agreements with them but no military obligations or ties to us OR them. They would most likely not get involved.

Although the North is an extremely impoverished nation, they are extremely well armed and would be a tough battle on their soil. As we'd probably guess it would a be a home court situation for them. If that were the case it would be weird. DPRK is the most tunneled nation in the world. For several reasons this is the case but mostly to stay under the radar (no pun intended) from U.S. and SK spy planes hovering over head 24hrs a day 7 days a week. They have an entire Hard-Wired communications network hundreds of feet below the surface that is virtually untapable and used by the Military. This country has been dedicating every day since the 60's for a war to happen. Dont think just because their resources are drab, that they havent found ways to manage for themselves.. Nearly every weapon and military craft is made in north korea (along with every other product in the country). This keeps an extremely low cost on munitions and technology.

Shit i just realized im going to be late to class..

Will be back later for more rant and discussion..

[Telo]

Ehh screw it. Not going to class.. Few things..

This was released some years ago by amateur spies using Google earth. If you don't have Google earth download it, and then download the File. Very Cool.

http://www.nkeconwatch.com/north-korea-uncovered-google-earth/

And it seems as though i was correct about his eldest son. kind of.. He lives in Macau. But travels to and from the DPRK.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-nam

[Telo]

And it seems as though our friends the North Koreans have made it into the world cup for the first time in over 40 years.

[christo-f]

Sorry dude, but....

Dammit. I didn't realize this thread was in here.

Anyways, a couple of different areas to touch upon here.



I'm thinking that this mystery kid who is 26 (who only has one picture circulating in the media) will be much more promising than his father. Sources say that he was educated in Switzerland under a false name for a brief part of his life. Also, [He was educated in Bern, it's no secret nor denied by anyone, there are class photos of him with his class all over the web. I personally know a guy who used to tease him.] for whatever reason Kim Jong Il has really treated his children much differently than he was treated himself as a boy. These kids HAVE been outside the country and have seen what the world is outside of DPRK. I believe off the top of my head he has three boys and several girls. (and if my memory serves me correctly one of the boys may of defected to the south? or something like that? could be totally wrong on that). Whether this has any effect on his Kim Jong Suns reputable overwhelmingly "in your face" personality is beyond me. I guess Kim Jong Sun is just like his father too.. He weighs over 200 lbs, eats like a savage, and already has diabetes. [Jong-un's supporters apparently tried to assassinate Jong-nam (the eldest who hangs out in Macau and was caught trying to enter Japan on a false passport to go to Disney) in the last two weeks without the knowledge of Jing-il. Jong-nam was kept safe by the Chinese security services who he has become relatively close with. Analyse that dynamic and look into the near to mid-future and see what falls loosely into place... ]

To TTboys reponse..

Yes, war with DPRK would be a war like we've never seen before [what about the war in 1950-1953? DPRK was backed and funded and also heavily supplemented by both China and Russia against the US, ROK, Canada, New Zealand and Australia. Straight after WW2 when there were nuclear weapons and a MASSIVE glut of conventional weapons in the region.]. I say this because the DPRK is HEAVILY HEAVILY equipped with Military power. They have a standing army of just over 1.2 million and another 300k or so on reserve. Being in DPRKs position currently has some ups and downs. AS westerners we see them as an impoverished country that could colllapse at any time, but the reality of it all is that they sink ALL their resources into their military and military personnel. this is why the average citizen can't obtain beef for protein to stay healthy, because it is all going to the army to feed them and keep them strong. [Actually, it is reported by a number of defectors that a lot of the army is under-supplied, under-equipped and under-trained. That then implies that they will also be less than motivated when it comes to battle. There is also apparently a number of generals that have been discussing a coup for years. However it apparently has never made it past drunken gatherings in basements.]

War with the DPRK would be a disaster. One thing that the DPRK has over other super powers such as China and Russia [China and Russia are super powers??!!] is political will [China and Russia don't have political will??!! I suggest you go back and read WW2 history of both these countries. While you're at it, check out Russia's political will in Chechnya.].. They would be more than happy to see the US leveled by Nukes, as it would have absolutely no affect on the DPRK [It would have a massive effect on the whole world, including DPRK. The whole world would be thrown in to chaos and reality would alter, totally. Forgetting that obvious point, it would destroy one of China's largest export markets and 80% of Chinese forex funds, that would bankrupt China and then DPRK would lose their only ally/sponsor]. China and Russia couldn't do that for well known economic and social reasons. Of course this would never happen ultimately because of once again, well known reasons. War with them probably wont happen anytime soon and if it does, it will be a joint SK/US invasion of the North [What about Japan? Anyway, there would be no invasion, they have 1.2 million well funded and trained troops, hometown advantage and political will, remember? Why would you invade that when you can attack it from a distance instead? That's why the US, ROK and Japan have spent so much on Navy, Air Force and Missiles, so they don't have to commit troops. Destroy command, coms and counter measures and wait for the masses to revolt. Either way, not going to happen for all the reasons I've previously stated.] China and Russia have trade agreements with them [No they don't. China has no actual agreements, they just supply them with what they can afford/need so they don't collapse. Total trade between the two countries is somewhere within the vicinity of USD3bn..., fuck all. Russia only has a slight fraction of that. Put it this way, Russia has more trade with Botswana than they do the DPRK. NorKor can't pay for anything!] but no military obligations or ties to us OR them. They would most likely not get involved. [Of course China would get involved, DPRK is their buffer zone and one of the greatest levers they have in regards to strategic relations with the US. You think China wants a US supported/controlled country right on their border or even a new Marshal Plan right next door?! China would use very strong measures of deterrence and assess the situation from there. If the US only attacked to destroy the DPRK's nuclear assets, China would sit it out. IF US destroyed the leadership China would then come in afterwards, support the country and put its own preferred leadership in. If the US occupied, then there'd be trouble.]

Although the North is an extremely impoverished nation, they are extremely well armed and would be a tough battle on their soil. As we'd probably guess it would a be a home court situation for them. If that were the case it would be weird. DPRK is the most tunneled nation in the world. For several reasons this is the case but mostly to stay under the radar (no pun intended) from U.S. and SK spy planes hovering over head 24hrs a day 7 days a week [spy planes don't go over DPRK territory, the remaining U2's fly at very high altitudes along the 38th parallel and international waters and surveil from there. The rest is done by satellites. Maybe the Global Hawks also play a role these days but they are still new to service]. They have an entire Hard-Wired communications network hundreds of feet below the surface that is virtually untapable and used by the Military. This country has been dedicating every day since the 60's for a war to happen. Dont think just because their resources are drab, that they havent found ways to manage for themselves.. Nearly every weapon and military craft is made in north korea (along with every other product in the country). This keeps an extremely low cost on munitions and technology. [And also means that much of it is low quality and untested]

Shit i just realized im going to be late to class..

Will be back later for more rant and discussion..

[yumone]

what would we do without you christo?

ps Sorry this is the first time i got back on 12oz in ages but Beijing was fucking awesome, the best city in China by far and possibly my favourite ive been to in the world.

[frankiefiver]

what would we do without you christo?

ps Sorry this is the first time i got back on 12oz in ages but Beijing was fucking awesome, the best city in China by far and possibly my favourite ive been to in the world.
Wow, I kinda thought Beijing sucked.
Shanghai was far cooler!

[christo-f]

Yeah I'm no fan either. Wuhan and Qingdao are the best I've been to on the mainland and HK is just globally cool.

Yeah, sorry I didn't see your PM until it was too late, pity we didn't meet up for a Yanjing or two! Cool that you got to try Taiyro (or however it's spelt), it's definitely the best tepinyaki restaurant I've been to. I assume you also hit up Propaganda out in Wudaokou (uni district), biggest fucking meat market this side of the meat markets!

Anyway, back to DPRK.

The Us is currently tracking a ship off the coast of China waiting for them to port so they can search it. Will be the first cab off the ranks since the UN passed its resolution a week ago.

[Telo]

Sorry Christo if i made you mad for any reason. You seem somewhat upset givin the red text and all.

All that info was based on what Ive read over the past few years and in the context of "IMO".. I realize you know much more than I about the situation due to whatever reason but dont want an argument here. Would actually like to know more.

regards

[Telo]

And yeah i heard about the ship. From what i understand they wont forcibly board unless given reason to.

[christo-f]

Sorry Christo if i made you mad for any reason. You seem somewhat upset givin the red text and all.

All that info was based on what Ive read over the past few years and in the context of "IMO".. I realize you know much more than I about the situation due to whatever reason but dont want an argument here. Would actually like to know more.

regards

No dude, sorry, I didn't mean to come across as mad or anything. Just hooking in to the subject with great gusto! Red text was just so it could be seen.

They won't board the ships with force because they don't want to give DPRK any excuse to use force or claim that it has been a victim of US force. Also, better to have another country board the ship and face risks than your own. Also makes the US look like a multilateral player rather than a cowboy doing whatever it wants.

Sorry dude, didn't mean to be an arsehole in that reply, will check myself if that's the way I came across.

[Telo]

All good brother..

On a separate note, how are your feelings on Kim Jung Un? Should we expect more openness or the same closed off touch and go country we've come to know?

[christo-f]

I really don't know and would be a little bit surprised if there is anyone outside of P'yangs elite that could answer that question.

[Telo]

fair enough

[lord_casek]

Japan warns that North Korea may fire missile at U.S. on Independence Day
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1193941/North-Korea-plan-missile-launch-Hawaii-Independence-Day.html

[Silba]

If they do that, that would the most bogus thing they could do, wow.
Grimey ass president they have

[christo-f]

Japan warns that North Korea may fire missile at U.S. on Independence Day
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1193941/North-Korea-plan-missile-launch-Hawaii-Independence-Day.html

Your top line a little misleading. Hawaii from DPRK, this far |--------------------------------------|
Range of biggest banger in DPRK , this far |----------------------|


They have only this path to choose due to third and second stage splash down restrictions all based on the region from which they fire it from, which seems to be determined by the added ability to track as close as possible during launch/1st faze.


They may need these rockets for real sooner than we are calculating. This may actually be more testing than politics. They may have a much smaller window to create a credible deterrence than we have been giving them. This does not mean that they will have that capability in a short time, this just means that they want it badder now than they did before. Change may be only a very few years away, what ever that change will be.

[yumone]

Wow, I kinda thought Beijing sucked.
Shanghai was far cooler!

serial? I didnt like shanghai at all, just a megacity of highrises with a crappy touristy city centre and not much else, having said that i was only there for about a week so im sure i missed out on a lot. As for HK I am not a fan of big commercial areas so although i had a blast while i was there and there is a lot of cool stuff in the place, kowloon especially, I didnt particularly like the city itself. Beijing seemd far mre vibrant and diverse than the other cities I went to, so many cool districts outside of the city centre area.

[christo-f]

Yeah, I'll give you that, Beijing is huge and sprawling with a huge amount of little districts and pokey places that are really different than the others. The Hutongs are pretty cool in places like Nanloguxiang (the alley way street near houhai that has all the bars and cafes on it) and the hutongs around houhai and Qianmen are really cool. However, living here does get a little boring after a while if you aren't focused on the sociological and developmental aspects of life. I'd love to have a beach or a sweet river/stream to be able to hang out at without the intrusiveness of another 17 million people trying to use the spot at the same time (spitting and smoking...).

Was it hazy when you were here? I can't remember.

[yumone]

hahaha yeah the spitting all over the place is a bit disgusting. It was so hazy one of the days that the sun was just an orange blur but I got a couple of good days too. The freaky thing is that you cant see a single light in the sky at night, stars would just be a myth to someone who has never left Beijing.

[FuckDaFakes]

The whole NK and the 'allies' battle will never happen.

It would be completely foolish of Kim-Jung-Il to invade or attack SK. NK has no valid reason to do anything to SK even though the history between them is monumental there is still no earthly reason for it to happen.

Now me personally I'm a school leaver at 15, have no qualifications on paper but still i seem to be able to keep up with modern affairs and in my eyes (17yrs now) nothing at all will come of it... If NK attack or invade SK, then America will step in, if America steps in, Britain will be sure to follow, followed by Holland ect. Now if this was to happen, our (British) Economy would also fall apart (more so than what it already is), relying on alot of import from China and so does the majority of Europe.

In the end run nothing will come of it, if it does ill be sure to shove a trout up my arse and walk down the street claiming the apocalypse is nigh.

Thats really my take on the whole NK, Sk thing.

Kim-Jung-Il is all talk and no action, typical school yard bully.

[christo-f]

Why would Britain join in? What's it got to do with them. They're not even a member of the six party talks nor have they voiced any particular concern more so than anyone else.

[FuckDaFakes]

Well it would be the same sort of thing as the gulf, iraq ect.

What ever America does Britain follows because our government are too fucking gutless to turn round and say no... or tighten our immigration policy lol. Look at how Iraq started... the yanks wanted to go in and look for WMD's so Blair decided to fucking brown nose Bush even more and said we will follow.

That is what will happen if America want to go into Nk or Sk to help defend.

If you don't think that will happen if America goes in as a bully as usual then you are really nieve and narrow minded... open your eyes... Britain follow AMERICA !
Were he needy little kid that desperately wants to hang out with the cool folk and the big guy but never, ever will be the cool guy.

Get what I'm saying ?

[Telo]

Well the point he was trying to make was that a war on America would be seen much as war on the west.

Yes Britain is not Japan, SK, Russian Fed, or China but much of the population see that nearly all of the West, the 6 party nations, and most economically stable (generally speaking) countries are not happy with and have never been happy with the actions taken by Kim Jung Il and his elite.

[christo-f]

No, sorry, I don't.


Well it would be the same sort of thing as the gulf, iraq ect. How? DPRK has no strategic assets such as energy deposits like Iraq does. DPRK is not strategically positioned as Iraq was (next to Iran, in the middle east), DPRK ICBMs don't threaten europe like Iran's potentially could. As a matter of fact, I can't see any similarities between DPRK and Iraq!


What ever America does Britain follows Really? GB was in the 1950-53 Korean war? GB was in Vietnam? GB was in Haiti? GB was in Nicaragua? GB was in Somalia? GB sent ships to the Taiwan Straits in 1996? etc. etc. because our government are too fucking gutless to turn round and say no... or tighten our immigration policy You have a lot of North Koreans in the UK, do you? lol. Look at how Iraq started... the yanks wanted to go in and look for WMD's so Blair decided to fucking brown nose Bush even more and said we will follow. Bush has gone from the US and Blair has gone from the UK.

That is what will happen if America want to go into Nk or Sk to help defend.

If you don't think that will happen if America goes in as a bully as usual then you are really nieve and narrow minded... open your eyes... Britain follow AMERICA !
Were he needy little kid that desperately wants to hang out with the cool folk and the big guy but never, ever will be the cool guy. GB never ever will be that cool guy huh? Last time I read a history book Great Britain had a massive empire that stretched around the world through India, Singapore, Australia, etc. and was a global power well before the US was even a federated nation.

Get what I'm saying ?

BTW, it's spelt "naive"...., get what I'm saying?

[christo-f]

Well the point he was trying to make was that a war on America would be seen much as war on the west.

Yes Britain is not Japan, SK, Russian Fed, or China but much of the population see that nearly all of the West, the 6 party nations, and most economically stable (generally speaking) countries are not happy with and have never been happy with the actions taken by Kim Jung Il and his elite.

The war wouldn't be on the US, the war would be "on" DPRK, very different situation. Also, not liking the way a country conducts itself does not equal spending billions and invading/attacking another country. No one is going to invade/attack Sudan, Zimbabwe, Myanmar/Burma, Syria, ....ok, maybe an attack on Syria is quite possible, but that's because it is strategically important, DPRK is not strategically important in the least. It is choked by ROK, Japan and China and has no resources to offer whatsoever..., shit, these people don't even have land that supports crops!

There is no reason for GB to get involved in a job that the US could do on their own but would have the assistance of ROK and Japan even if hell froze over and they did invade the north.

[Telo]

....ok, maybe an attack on Syria is quite possible, but that's because it is strategically important

This is interesting but for a different conversation altogether.

[Telo]

And we arent talking about about strategic location here. We are talking about the threat of nuclear weapons. I understand the country as a whole has no redeeming value at all. I read.. i understand.

And before you get into it.. im using "a threat of nuclear weapons" very loosely here

The U.S. is not looking for resources or some type of investment, they are simply trying to sideline a politically charged dictator/family that doesnt seem to be going away anytime soon..

[Telo]

*****

[christo-f]

And we arent talking about about strategic location here. We are talking about the threat of nuclear weapons. I understand the country as a whole has no redeeming value at all. I read.. i understand.

And before you get into it.. im using "a threat of nuclear weapons" very loosely here

The U.S. is not looking for resources or some type of investment, they are simply trying to sideline a politically charged dictator/family that doesnt seem to be going away anytime soon..

Ok, sure. But I am talking about UK getting involved right now and the Taepodong-2 hasn't even successfully separated its third phase yet. So not only are they void a weaponised nuke (as far as we know) but they also don't have a rocket capable of hitting the UK, so it aint the UK's problem. The Taepodong can only theoretically hit Hawaii, it's a long way off hitting the continental US as yet as well. the biggest threat is a missile hitting US bases in ROK or Japan and they can do that with the Nodongs and and Hwasong 7 and even 6s.

IT is already known that DPRK has a large amount of chemical and possibly biological weapons that they could launch at ROK and JAPAN where around 55 000+ US soldiers are. there is still no talk of invasion.

There is still a huge amount of room for other methods aside from military force that can be used. I would assume that the US hopes China would do something itself before they allowed DPRK to have weaponised nukes. Ther is absolutely no urgency whatsoever in dealing with DPRK now. KJI is going to be dead in less than a decade and KJU is an unknown quantity. There is heaps of time and heaps of options here, no one will invade or attack. No one wants to....., least of all the UK!

[R@ndomH3ro]

they barely have electricity, they cant shoot a nuke or a chemical warhead

[NewAccount12345]

the real threat is him selling the technology to others. or selling the bombs to others.<--------

[christo-f]

they barely have electricity, they cant shoot a nuke or a chemical warhead

Really? How do you account for all the missiles that have been fired over the last two months?

Secondly, chem warheads are not restricted to missiles, they can easily be loaded on to arty rounds for the about 15 000 long range artillery pieces dispersed north of the 38th. Chem and bio warheads are not difficult to manufacture, all.

A lot of the country may not have regular supplies of electricity..., or food, but that does not imply that the military and security establishments don't. Simple night time sat pics show the defense/govt-party/security have constant energy supply.

[the_gooch]

WW3...here we come.

[Silba]

I dont think we'll be thrusted into WW3 right away, but if we do go to war with N.Korea, then WW3 shouldnt be far away

[FuckDaFakes]

Telo you are the man.

ChristoF there aint no reason to try and belittle people.

Ive honestly lost the majpority of interset of this thread because there is no point in talking about it because nothing will come of it.

I mean if we were to go to war with nk it would end in ww3, no doubt.

So this thread is pontless in my eyes...All aspects have been covered and now we are just repeating ourselves



Thread now officially sucks !

[christo-f]

What, so it's alright for you to say I'm naive, narrow minded and should open my eyes. That along with pretty silly reasoning for your position and I'm not allowed to have a go back at you?

Sorry dude, thread only sucks because you're being immature in both your behaviour and your opinion and you don't like it when it's pointed out to you.

So, back to the grown up talk....

Apparently all but the top security and intelligence apparatuses are completely unaware of the power transition taking place in DPRK right now.

[R@ndomH3ro]

Really? How do you account for all the missiles that have been fired over the last two months?

Secondly, chem warheads are not restricted to missiles, they can easily be loaded on to arty rounds for the about 15 000 long range artillery pieces dispersed north of the 38th. Chem and bio warheads are not difficult to manufacture, all.

A lot of the country may not have regular supplies of electricity..., or food, but that does not imply that the military and security establishments don't. Simple night time sat pics show the defense/govt-party/security have constant energy supply.

Those missiles that they have fired have failed to meet any of their intented target marks, you and I know that.

Also you know that North Korea has no will or means to attack. They are in poverty and lack a lot of what is needed to sustain a fight.

Also you know that all these missle launches are just a front for attention from a crazed leader.

I am pretty sure we both read the same reports, but I am not all caught up in Asia.

[viperface]

I am pretty convinced that NK as a whole nation is piss poor for a major part because of it's army. Meaning they make a huge effort to make sure they pack a punch now and in the future: they have stocks of fuel and valid weaponry that only require some maintenance+training of the troops. Military drills and practice are cheap because they don't need to pay anyone shit.

Also it doesn't take much to actually sustain a fight, basically just angry soldiers with AKs and food. NK probably has alot better military in all fields of warfare (from organization to training, moreale and equipment) than any nation US has fought against recently, making it's military strength relatively adequate.

US warfare is based on overwhelming superiority combined with popular support of war. The former would be challenged by NK's military and latter is difficult to build from scratch, after two unsuccessful/ongoing operations against exponentially weaksauce opponents in comparison.

This is the reason why the NK issue hasn't been erased yet and the regime remains.

[christo-f]

Those missiles that they have fired have failed to meet any of their intented target marks, you and I know that.

Also you know that North Korea has no will or means to attack. They are in poverty and lack a lot of what is needed to sustain a fight.

Also you know that all these missle launches are just a front for attention from a crazed leader.

I am pretty sure we both read the same reports, but I am not all caught up in Asia.

The three stage Taepodong-2 failed to separate at the third stage and also failed to launch the small satellite P'yang claimed to be carried by the rocket, that is true. But the short to medium range rocket that they've launched into the sea of Japan haven't all been failures. They are all of basic SCUD design and have been used in a number of theaters before without failing. There will be another Taepodong launch soon, we'll see how that one goes.

On the second point, I agree 100%. Their greatest military asset they have is a mass of long range arty aimed at Seoul dug in and in caves that only surprise carpet bombing could minimise to acceptable levels.

Thied point I only partially agree. KJI is dying and he is creating space around DPRK whilst he sorts out his own house for succession. Play the crazy, unpredictable act and people will back for for a while. However, DPRK does very little testing on its rockets before they are deployed for use so I'd also suggest that along with trying to look pissed off and scary they are also firing a lot of their short/mid range stuff off now to collect as much data as they can. Theatrics and testing, IMO.

One thing that must be assumed and planned around is that they have an arty deployed chem capability. Too much indicating that this is the case and has been this way for at least 5 years.

Another thing that I would suggest too is that an invasion of that country would be a shit fight of Iraqian proportions. Not only does that country have tunnels coming out of their wazoo but they have apparently been training in guerilla/insurgency style tactics lately and mass producing shaped charges en masse.

[george jetson]

there's absolutely no way north korea will ever invade the south. its just simply not a battle they are capable of winning, and the few with brains in that country realize that. their military, although quite large gets no training what so ever. they spend all their time farming their own food. thats a proven fact. their air force get no training either, due to a lack of fuel and spare parts for their planes. the only thing north korea does have is quality commando teams which could be a problem for the south but none that would ever result in the loss of a war.

at the same time i feel that no matter what north korea does; missile tests, nuclear weapon tests, tough talk will result in the US doing nothing. i think the US military is praying nothing happens because our own forces are streched so far out with iraq and afghanistan that to fight a large war in korea would be so difficult to do. i just think that north korea is going to continue to talk tough and detonate nuclear weapons and we will continue to do nothing, until one day there is a revolution in that country and the regime is toppled. that could take another 100 years though.

[christo-f]

I agree with 99% of what you've said here ^^^^ except for one thing.

They will continue to test nukes until they weaponise (which will take years) or until they are stopped. I'm getting closer and closer to thinking that it may be left up to China to to stop it too. Part of me thinks that the US would be happy for DPRK to have 4-8 nukes. The missile defence systems are looking more and more capable of of taking out multiple missile launches around the korean and Japanese regions. If DPRK gets nukes then Japan and ROK militarise that will draw China's attention away from expanding its navy (which threatens the US in the mid-long term) and focus on its own regional arms race/coastal defence.

That could work in the US interest. IT only means that then Japan and ROK may become potential competitors down the track too.

Good post though ^^^^!!

[george jetson]

gotta remember that NK has no missle silo system/submarines or anything of the sort. all the missles they have require them to be moved by train (which can easily be detected by satilites), then be fuled at the launch site (takes about and hour), then succesfully launched. i feel that the US would be able to take any missile like that out with an airstrike with in that amount of time (considering that we have tons of air force bases in the area in ROK, japan, okinawa, guam etc). so no matter what i feel that the NK military threat is nonexistant. they may cause casualties, but in the end i think they would get wiped out. remember that iraq in 1990 had either the 4-5th largest military on the planet, and they had pretty much the exact same equipment as NK has now. only difference is that we have the US military of 2009

[christo-f]

That's only the Taepodong ICBM that has to be transported by train and they are still liquid fueled so prepping them actually takes days. However, the US troops that you mention in ROK and Japan (which includes a nuclear powered air craft carrier) are well within range of Nodongs and Hwasong-6&7s which don't need to be transported by train, they can be fired from mobile launchers, etc.

As was mentioned before by some one else, proliferation is also a pretty large concern of the US and other nations.

Anyway, as I was saying before about the DPRK nuke thing possibly aiding the US in their competition with China, here's what I was talking about:


Defense Plan Calls for Greater Firepower But Less Troops
Chosun Ilbo



The military will reduce its troop size but equip itself with far greater firepower, according to the Defense Ministry's revised version of the Defense Reform 2020 plan announced Friday.

With North Korea's nuclear program and missiles posing a clear danger, South Korea plans to upgrade combat capability with high-tech military hardware which can strike targets anywhere in the North with surgical precision.

It will add to its arsenal an early warning radar to detect imminent ballistic missile attacks and adopt a surface-to-air guided missile defense system as well as buying ship-to-air interceptor missiles, to name a few. The plan is to cost close to W600 trillion over the next 10 years (US$1=W1,248).

But the military force is to be scaled down to 510,000 soldiers from the current 680,000. The proposal takes account of the transfer of full control of South Korean troops to Seoul from the U.S. in 2012.

Also under the plan, a new unit of peacekeeping forces will be created aimed at rapid deployment to troubled regions overseas at the request of the UN. The 3,000-strong unit consists of about 900 special forces soldiers and up to 2,000 support personnel recruited from almost all branches of the military.

The regiment-sized unit will be led by troops trained for counter-terrorism missions. Depending on the nature of deployment, up to 1,000 soldiers can be dispatched for a mission. When the unit is formed, the government will be able to send a contingent overseas within a month or two months of the call. In the past, it could take between three and six months from the recruiting of troops and National Assembly approval until actual deployment.

[TommyPillfingers]

every morning i wake up hoping to see that we have finally nuked these bastards into oblivion. these niggas is crazy yo, bout to get bombed back to the stone age.

[george jetson]

That's only the Taepodong ICBM that has to be transported by train and they are still liquid fueled so prepping them actually takes days. However, the US troops that you mention in ROK and Japan (which includes a nuclear powered air craft carrier) are well within range of Nodongs and Hwasong-6&7s which don't need to be transported by train, they can be fired from mobile launchers, etc.

As was mentioned before by some one else, proliferation is also a pretty large concern of the US and other nations.

Anyway, as I was saying before about the DPRK nuke thing possibly aiding the US in their competition with China, here's what I was talking about:


Defense Plan Calls for Greater Firepower But Less Troops
Chosun Ilbo



The military will reduce its troop size but equip itself with far greater firepower, according to the Defense Ministry's revised version of the Defense Reform 2020 plan announced Friday.

With North Korea's nuclear program and missiles posing a clear danger, South Korea plans to upgrade combat capability with high-tech military hardware which can strike targets anywhere in the North with surgical precision.

It will add to its arsenal an early warning radar to detect imminent ballistic missile attacks and adopt a surface-to-air guided missile defense system as well as buying ship-to-air interceptor missiles, to name a few. The plan is to cost close to W600 trillion over the next 10 years (US$1=W1,248).

But the military force is to be scaled down to 510,000 soldiers from the current 680,000. The proposal takes account of the transfer of full control of South Korean troops to Seoul from the U.S. in 2012.

Also under the plan, a new unit of peacekeeping forces will be created aimed at rapid deployment to troubled regions overseas at the request of the UN. The 3,000-strong unit consists of about 900 special forces soldiers and up to 2,000 support personnel recruited from almost all branches of the military.

The regiment-sized unit will be led by troops trained for counter-terrorism missions. Depending on the nature of deployment, up to 1,000 soldiers can be dispatched for a mission. When the unit is formed, the government will be able to send a contingent overseas within a month or two months of the call. In the past, it could take between three and six months from the recruiting of troops and National Assembly approval until actual deployment.

good lookin out...

[christo-f]

Should be another launch in the next few days. More than likely a 3 stage Taepodong-2 (ICBM) on Saturday.

[YouMad.GIF]

With the exponential advancement of all technology, particularly nuclear weaponry, it seems that some sort of at least limited scale nuclear proliferation seems near imminent. With more and more unstable or "rogue" nations gaining cheaper acess to the technology I think we are certainly destined for some sort of nuclear incedent and retaliation, the only question is how severe or contained it will be.

[christo-f]

What do you mean proliferation seems imminent?

Nuclear proliferation has been happening ever since the 1950s!

First Russia, then the UK, France, China, South Africa, Israel, Pakistan, India, DPRK, Iran, Lybia, Iraq, take your pick mate! Proliferation just means spreading of something and that has been happening ever since the first bomb was made and then nicely sped up in the 80s thanks to Abdul Kadeer Khan.

I will be shocked if we see anything other than the use of a tactical warhead (as in small theater sized as opposed to a strategic strike that is the size of a city) in our life time. And even that will surprise me.

Nukes are defensive, you have them so you don't need to use them.

[YouMad.GIF]

I would say in a classic cold war model they are defensive

but that thinking does not fit with the tactics of rogue states, countries that can only produce a couple of warheads on rockets with minimal range. I think it's far more likely a country could be gained controll of by a radical group or dictator willing to sacrifice their body in order to give our country a black eye, or more likely a Pakistan/india like situation.

I think nukes roles have shifted towards an equalizing effect with neighboring or regional enemies, and less of a deterrance factor between superpowers

[christo-f]

Extremist groups, sure they are the greatest risk. But "rogue nations" (WTF is a rogue nation anyway?) under dictators are the last ones that will use them. There is more chance that the US would use a nke than DPRK. Dictators are power people through and through. They are the kings of their country and live like fat pigs, that's want they want. They don't want to die and lose their power, that would defeat their main purpose in this world, being the king and feeding their egotistical appetite.

An equalising effect IS a deterrence dynamic. Mutual destruction is the epitome of deterrence and that's what the equalising effect is between nations like Pak/India, Iran/Israel, China/Japan, DPRK/JAPAN/US nuclear umbrella for ROK, etc.

DPRK wants to be nuclear capable to ensure regime security against outside influence and to push them up to great power status in the world instead of a poor shit hole that no one takes seriously.

The only serious risk we have is that "rogue nations" destabilise and the tech falls in to the hands of non-state, religious actors such as Al Qaeda, LeT, etc.

[christo-f]

Two short range ground to ship missiles just fired off east coast.

Expect more over the next few days. Also look for SAMs being tested. This deters spy planes from the area and can be an indicator of another ICBM launch or test of a nuke device.

[R@ndomH3ro]

OMG TEY HAXORZING UR INTERNETZ!! OH NOES!!!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/08/AR2009070800066.html?hpid=moreheadlines

[TRUE2]

if world war 3 happens in the next 3 years then ya the world will end cause like hundreds of years ago they predicted that the WW3 will be the beginning of the end

[R@ndomH3ro]

goddamn, shut the fuck up

that was the worst collection of words ever called a sentence.

[Telo]

haha..

North Korean Hackers.. Interesting

[george jetson]

^^^ from what ive read its been outside hackers who are being paid by north korea to do this stuff. how many north koreans even have computers? kim jong il and kim jong il last i checked. who knows though. i dont completely trust the media anyways.

[Telo]

Yeah i didnt really understand how it were to work out.. Now granted I understand that the entire country essentially lacks internet access but is it possible for Kim Jung Il and co. to access internet in his home and other govt buildings?

[christo-f]

You have to understand that the DPRK security forces are well educated and well funded. THe infantry as a whole are not particularly cutting edge. But the missile program is decent, the SF program is formidable, the tech program is actually one of the best in the world, they have more multilinguals per capita than most developed countries. Pyang knows what it needs to do to keep the strategic edge/stand off space. DPRK keeps itself where it needs to be enough to deter attack (that means nuke capacity or the image of nuke capable, regional power projection and tech offensive capability). It's the same as one single person having 10 nukes. Sure, he cannot fend off a whole army but he can make an attack on him so fucking costly that it is not worth the effort, even if you do win in the end.

I'm no tech wiz/casek, but I would assume that either Pyang has deployed tech sleepers that are now testing a capability. Pay attention to the fact that no real damage was done (it was a simple denial of service attack) and so far there is nothing to say that crucial information was stolen. So, they are either creating a diversion for another attack or they are testing weakness/reaction/capability. They have either deployed their own elements to initiate or they have created a new form of zombie that has a trace barrier yet undetectable.

Sure DPRK is a fucked up shithole with an unsustainable economic and social structure. But they still do hold some serious strategic cards that are enough to keep the world standing back and guessing. Put it this way, they are considered to be nuclear capable which is more than can be said for about 195 other countries. If they were completely useless we would not be paying this much attention to them. Disregard them at your own peril.

DPRK is defensive in nature. With the latest nuke and missile test they are demonstrating their capabilities to make us think twice about hitting them. This latest cyber assault provides exactly that , a demonstration of force that makes us stand back and think "well, if they can do that, what else can they do?". Once again, DPRK keeps us guessing enough to make us think twice. This has to be respected, they aren't stupid.

[Telo]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jO5PtkM_1FjwMZjh3LS74g26yiUQD99C8ON80

[christo-f]

Kim Jong-il 'Won't Live Another 5 Years'
Chosun Ilbo



The CIA has told South Korean intelligence that the chances of ailing North Korean leader Kim Jong-il surviving another five years are one in three.

A South Korean government source on Friday said the CIA last month informed intelligence authorities here of a long-distance analysis of Kim's health that suggests there is a 71 percent probability of Kim, who has been battling complications from a stroke and diabetes, dying within the next five years.

The CIA speculation is apparently based on analysis of medical data including Kim's age, medical history, physical condition, and changes in his physical condition between the time of the stroke and more recently. It indexed Kim's physical condition based on various intelligence reports including brain scan pictures obtained by South Korean intelligence and testimonies of senior informants, in addition to information such as photos of Kim's on-the-spot guidance tours.

The Washington Times last Thursday gave Kim even less time. "New reports from U.S. and diplomatic sources say that the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il continues to decline and that he may have only one more year to live," the daily said.

South Korean intelligence services agree that Kim is not in a good health, but different agencies apparently have different views about how serious his condition is.



Report: NKorea's Kim has pancreatic cancer




AP – FILE - In this Wednesday July 8, 2009
By JAE-SOON CHANG, Associated Press Writer – 10 mins ago
SEOUL, South Korea – North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has life-threatening pancreatic cancer, a news report said Monday, days after new images of him looking gaunt spurred speculation that his health might be worsening following a reported stroke last year.
The 67-year-old Kim was diagnosed with the cancer around the time he was felled by a stroke last summer, Seoul's YTN television reported, citing unidentified intelligence officials in South Korea and China.
The report cited the officials saying the disease is "threatening" Kim's life.
Pancreatic cancer is usually found in its final stage, and considering Kim's age, he is expected to live no more than five years, the report said.
South Korea's spy agency said it could not confirm the report. Unification Ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung told reporters he knows of nothing of the report.
Kim's health is a focus of intense media speculation due to concerns about instability and a power struggle if he were to die without naming a successor. His third and youngest son, Kim Jong Un, has widely been reported as being groomed as heir, but the regime has made no announcement to the outside world.
Monday's report came after Kim last week made a rare public appearance, in an annual memorial for his late father and North Korea's founder, Kim Il Sung.
Television footage showed him markedly thinner and with less hair — only the second state event he has attended in person since the reported stroke. He also limped slightly, and the sides of his tightlipped mouth looked imbalanced in what were believed to be the effects of a stroke.
The images touched off speculation that he could have other health problems.
South Korea's spy agency has long suspected that Kim has diabetes and heart disease.
Medical doctor and professor Min Yang-ki of Seoul's Hallym University Medical Center has said diabetes usually leads to weight loss. The neurologist also said Kim's limping appears to be a result of a stroke. However, he said, overall it appeared Kim has recovered from that reported illness.
Kim walked on his own into a Pyongyang auditorium for last week's memorial at a normal pace and bowed while standing during a moment of silence.
North Korea experts said the latest images of Kim show he is still fit enough to rule.
The totalitarian leader, whose rule is buttressed by an intense cult of personality, knew that the people ofNorth Korea would pay great attention to the memorial, and his appearance there is a message that he is in charge, Yang Moo-jin, a professor at Seoul's University of North Korean Studies, said last week.
Kim Jong Il took over North Korea after his father died in 1994 of heart failure at age 82, though he did not take on his father's title of president. He runs the North from his post as chairman of the National Defense Commission.
In early April, he presided over a parliamentary meeting where he was re-elected as leader.
The South's spy agency believes that Kim's 26-year-old youngest son, Jong Un, is sure to inherit North Korea, Seoul's Chosun Ilbo daily reported Monday, citing a recent report to the National Assembly by the National Intelligence Service.
The agency also reported that Kim Jong Il is expected to officially designate the son as his successor in 2012, the centennial anniversary of late national founder Kim Il Sung's birth, the paper said.
But the regime under the son is expected to be unstable and vulnerable to internal political strife as Kim Jong Il's brother-in-law, Jang Song Thaek, could attempt to snatch power, the paper said.
The spy agency declined to confirm the report.

[R@ndomH3ro]

good riddance, see you in hell you midget bastard.

[christo-f]

Yyyyep. I'm no socialist but that is one country where they really should eat the rich..., starting with that fat little prick.

[christo-f]

I could not have put it better myself -


N. Korean attack would be sudden but futile: U.S. general




By Sam Kim
SEOUL, July 14 (Yonhap) -- A North Korean offensive on South Korea would come with "very little notice" but fail to endure as the communist state lacks the economic and diplomatic support it needs, a senior U.S. military officer said Tuesday.

"They have an extremely large military that is forward deployed," U.S. Maj. Gen. Johnny Weida said, noting over two-thirds of North Korea's forces are within 90km of the border with South Korea.

"They could attack, if they were so inclined, with very little notice," said Weida, the outgoing deputy chief of staff for the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK).

Weida was speaking to a group of several dozen South Korean civilians taking part in the USFK-sponsored Executive Orientation Program, which took them on a tour to the Demilitarized Zone.

The U.S. has 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea -- a legacy of the 1950-53 Korean War that ended in a truce rather than a peace treaty -- as a deterrent against the North.

North Korea has in recent months scrapped the truce and warned of war on the Korean Peninsula, threatening retaliation for a U.N. resolution that toughened sanctions against Pyongyang for its May 25 nuclear test.

"It is our assessment that, because of their failing economy and limited support from traditional allies like Russia and China, they could not sustain a major offensive like they did in the first Korean War," Weida said.

He added that the U.S. and its allies should first "engage (North Korea) diplomatically, try to talk to them through all kinds of forums, but show them that military action is futile."

North Korea is considered the world's fourth-largest military power, with the largest special forces unit and artillery units, according to Weida.

It has about 11,000 underground bunkers, along with 80,000 special forces and 13,000 artillery guns, Weida said.

"Their attack, however limited, would be extremely destructive to South Korea," he said, describing North Korean leader Kim Jong-il as "a pretty frail, sick man."

A South Korean cable news station said this week, quoting unnamed sources, that Kim appears to be suffering from pancreatic cancer.

Kim, 67, reportedly suffered a stroke last year, and South Korean defense officials believe he may be stoking tensions to consolidate his regime ahead of a father-to-son power succession.

"If he miscalculates and attacks South Korea, he and his regime are done," Weida said, calling such an offensive "extremely unlikely because this guy (Kim) wants to live."

Weida, who led the South Korean civilian tour group comprised of government workers, businessmen and others, is set to be transferred to the Pentagon this week.

He will be replaced by Maj. Gen. Lawrence Wells, also an air force officer who has worked in intelligence at the Pentagon since June 2006.

[FuckDaFakes]

ChristoF.

Why is it everyone is wrong except from you.

You know for a fact that if NK was to attack anywhere which is very doubtful now obviously then the uk would have to get involved.

And as far as you saying that Gb wasnt involved in haiti, nam, korea and all the rest of that... That was long before blair had his head up bush's arse and made all these dumbass connections.

Im saying that if US was to do anything chances are brittain would want to get invloved either way, Whether it was in NK or fucking Swazyland.


And dont bother trying to fucking belitlle me and correcting my spelling and grammar coz its really childish and immature.

[R@ndomH3ro]

Hahaha, Russia pulled talks with North Korea for their missile launching
China getting tired of North Korea's shit

North Korea are fucking themselves

[milesmoodist]

i just saw the best video of koreans serving dogs, cats and rabbits in the market.. youtube yanked it already though... alot of muscle structure and resident evil look'n shit

[lord_casek]

where it the world wide attack matrix when they could be useful?
fucking cia are never doing what's right.

[R@ndomH3ro]

where it the world wide attack matrix when they could be useful?
fucking cia are never doing what's right.

what? :confused:

[lord_casek]

what? :confused:


CIA's program. World Wide Attack Matrix. They do assassinations, etc.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A64802-2002Jan30?language=printer

[R@ndomH3ro]

um...the CIA has been murdering people since they were known as OSS
plus your sentence didnt make sense that is what I was confused about

old news is old

p.s - that article was blank

[lord_casek]

um...the CIA has been murdering people since they were known as OSS
plus your sentence didnt make sense that is what I was confused about

old news is old

p.s - that article was blank


This is a totally different animal. Cheney is apparently taking some heat for this one currently.



CIA's 'Worldwide Attack Matrix'
Of Specific Targets J'Accuse - Bush's Death Squads

By Wayne Madsen NewsMakingNews.com 1-31-02
Today, The Washington Post ran the fifth segment in its series on what transpired within the Bush Cabinet in the aftermath of September 11. Of particular interest is what CIA Director George Tenent brought to the table at Camp David last September 15. According to the article by Bob Woodward and Dan Balz, when Tenent produced a Top Secret "Worldwide Attack Matrix" that specified targets in 80 countries around the world, he sought unprecedented authority to simply assassinate foreign terrorists directly or though allied intelligence services. The CIA even prepared a "Memorandum of Notification" which would allow the agency to have virtual carte blanche to conduct political assasinations abroad. This Memorandum trumped previous mechanisms by which the President would authorize intelligence actions (but not assassinations) through individual Presidential Findings. The fail safe mechanisms established under the administrations of Presidents Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush I, and Clinton were simply erased at the urging of Tenent. In light of these revelations, what was authorized by the President may have led to the assassinations of a umber of human rights and ethnic leaders not connected in any way with Al Qaeda but did represent bothersome roadblocks to a number of U.S. military and corporate interests. It now seems likely, given the unprecedented "license to kill" President Bush granted to the CIA, there was U.S. complicity in the murders of the following individuals. Human rights commissions and war crime tribunals in Belgium and France should take a close look at these likely criminal misadventures: 1. Theys Eluay. Today, the Indonesian army chief, General Endriartono Sutarto, confirmed in Jakarta that West Papuan independence leader Theys Eluay was assassinated by Indonesian Army units after he was kidnapped last November 11. The assassins were members of KOPASSUS, a special operations unit trained by U.S. Special Forces and CIA personnel and was involved in massacres in East Timor during the Indonesian occupation of that country. In 1969, West Papua was formally handed over to Indonesia by the United Nations after a referendum, now widely recognized as rigged, determined that the non-Indonesian population wanted to be Indonesian. Eluay was a thorn in the side of Freeport McMoran, a Louisiana-based mining company that has pillaged West Papua's natural resources and has been accused by local activists of propping up local Indonesian army and KOPASSUS officers with bribes and favors. Henry Kissinger serves as a Director Emeritus on the board of directors of Freeport and former Louisiana Senator J. Bennett Johnston, recently identified as a lobbyist for Enron, serves as a full member of the board. 2. Abdullah Syafii. On January 22, 2002, Indonesian army troops assassinated the military commander of the Free Aceh Movement, Abdullah Syafii. The Free Aceh Movement demands independence for Aceh, a region in northwest Sumatra, and is a member of the non-violent Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization (UNPO), an international organization headquartered in the Netherlands. It has also been at loggerheads with ExxonMobil, which has extensive drilling and refining operations in the territory. Aceh's Governor Abdullah Puteh, who is claimed by local activists to be on the payroll of ExxonMobil, had written a letter to Syafii inviting him to attend peace talks with the government. Syafii's lieutenants claim that the letter contained a small microchip that permitted Indonesian KOPASSUS troops to track him down and ambush him. The operation has all the earmarks of the CIA, which can rely on National Security Agency (NSA) satellites to track such microchip transponders. 3. Elie Hobeika. Elie Hobeika was the head of the Lebanese Forces militia, a right-wing Christian army that was allied with Israel during its 1982 occupation of Beirut. Although Hobeika was in charge of the Christian forces that massacred hundreds of Palestinian men, women, and children at the Sabra and Chatilla refugee camps that year, he had irrefutable evidence that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon had authorized the mass murder in his role as Israeli Defense Minister. An official Israeli commission of inquiry found Sharon indirectly responsible for the massacres. Hobeika was going to testify against Sharon at an upcoming Belgian war crimes tribunal which has already indicted Sharon for the war crimes. It was that testimony that resulted in Hobeika being silenced by a Mossad car bomb that exploded near his SUV near Beirut. The bomb killed Hobeika and his bodyguards. The CIA, now closely allied with Mossad, is said to have given its approval for the action. 4. Chief Bola Ige. On December 23, 2001, Chief Bola Ige, the Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Nigeria, was assassinated in the bedroom of his home in Ibadan by unknown gunmen. Ige was a leader of the Yorubas, a largely Christian ethnic group that has championed the cause of southern Nigerian Christian tribes like the Igbo, Ogoni, and Yoruba that maintain grievances against exploitative Western oil companies that have spoiled their lands with pollution and pocketed most of the oil revenues for themselves and corrupt Nigerian politicians. Ige was the presidential candidate of the pan-Yoruba Alliance for Democracy but lost to the current President Olusegum Obasanjo, a former general who is thought by many Nigerians to be in the hip pocket of western oil companies, including Chevron and ExxonMobil. A lucrative CIA and Pentagon front operation, the private military contractor MPRI, has been training special units of the Nigerian armed forces. These forces have been active in putting down anti-oil industry protests by Igbo, Ogoni, and Yoruba tribal peoples along the Nigerian coast. Michael J. Boskin, the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Bush I is a member of the Exxon Mobil board, while current National Security Adviser Condolleezza Rice served on the board of Chevron. Currently serving on Chevron's Board is Bush I trade representative Carla Hills and former Louisiana Senator Johnston, who also serves on the board of Freeport McMoran. In all likelihood all of these assassinations were likely known to the CIA and allowed to take place unhindered. The killings all directly benefitted the interests of the US military-industrial complex that President Eisenhower so poignantly warned us about some 40 years ago. **** I more or less predicted the Indonesian murders a few months ago (just after Tenent received authorization to conduct assassinations of "terrorists") during an interview with Radio Singapore International. The transcript of that broadcast follows: CIA assassination missions - a look into the implications of this US Foreign policy Source: Augustine Anthuvan, Newsline, Radio Singapore International Broadcast date: 30 October 2001 Wayne Madsen, a former Intelligence Officer at the National Security Agency in Washington with this comment. When Senator Frank Church had a committee in the Senate that found out that the CIA was conducting assassination missions against foreign leaders and they passed very stringent laws against the CIA to prevent any abuses. And now what we're hearing is that the late Senator Church went too far. Well Senator Church was responding to some very severe abuses of authority by the CIA. And now we're hearing basically history is being changed on us here and we're hearing that Senator Church went too far in what he did. And I think its very important now to understand that these things are all in context and what people like Senator Frank Church did in the 1970s really still applies today." If CIA assassination missions are taken beyond the present operations in Afghanistan to other countries where terrorists are known to be operating, what sort of repercussions will this present for country to country relations? A concern I posed to Wayne Madsen. "Especially in countries in South East Asia, we have a President who is very much in it with the US multi-national companies. What if they decide that West Papua independence movement in Irian Jaya - West Papua - could be a terrorist organization. And they could decide well we're going to target their leadership for assassination because they happen to be against the interests of Freeport McMoran - one of the biggest mining companies in West Papua. Or what if they decide that the Aceh movement in Northern Sumatra happens to be ÖÖ. to the interests of Exxon Mobil corporation, and they decide to target their leadership for assassination. I think this is the problem with this type of wide sweeping authorization to assassinate foreign leaders. We may find ourselves assassinating people because they just so happen to be against US interests. "

[R@ndomH3ro]

WALL O TEXT!!!

illegal assassinations, undisclosed operations, congress kept out of the loop
I read about this on Monday

that is all you needed to say

[lord_casek]

WALL O TEXT!!!

illegal assassinations, undisclosed operations, congress kept out of the loop
I read about this on Monday

that is all you needed to say


CO must've not let you fuck him in the ass today, gunny.

[christo-f]

ChristoF.

Why is it everyone is wrong except from you.

You know for a fact that if NK was to attack anywhere which is very doubtful now obviously then the uk would have to get involved.

And as far as you saying that Gb wasnt involved in haiti, nam, korea and all the rest of that... That was long before blair had his head up bush's arse and made all these dumbass connections.

Im saying that if US was to do anything chances are brittain would want to get invloved either way, Whether it was in NK or fucking Swazyland.


And dont bother trying to fucking belitlle me and correcting my spelling and grammar coz its really childish and immature.

No, not everyone, just people like yourself who do very little reading on the matter, have very little education on the matter (or anything else from what you've told us about yourself) and can barely string a coherent sentence together. You complain that I'm being immature, I note how the candour of your post has changed now that we're discussing levels of maturity!! You may also wish to check your previous post where you implied that I was naive and needed to wake up. I believe it was you who first displayed arrogance and got all upset when it was handed back to you.

Mate, take a look through crossfire and you'll notice that I make very few comments and when I do I back them up with either recorded evidence or a really strong argument citing strong analysis and a knowledge of relevant history. The fact is that I'm a strategic analyst that focuses on East Asia. I do this shit for about 10 hours every day, it's my job.

You have given absolutely no reason as to why the UK should or would get involved in a conflict with DPRK other than Blair having his head up Bush's arse, which is entirely irrelevant being that neither man is in power anymore, the US has a completely different party in power and Brown and friends are halfway out the door.

Dude, if you were to argue stuff concerning Northern Island, Basque separatists, Nigerian oil attacks, Honduran coups, English football, environmental issues, punk music, space exploration, motor sports and so on I'd have very little to say as I know fuck all about it. But we are discussing something that I have studied for years and has been an intrinsic part of my job for years. You, on the other hand, just have a gut feeling based on prejudice. I'm sorry if I know more than you on this matter and that makes me sound arrogant.

[christo-f]

Gates Urges N.Korea Not to Make 'Stupid Mistakes'


At a question-and-answer session with American soldiers, Secretary Gates was asked whether he is concerned about the U.S. ability to defend South Korea from a North Korean invasion. The United States has 28,000 troops in South Korea. But the secretary said South Korea's own army has grown in size and capability in recent years, and would handle most of the fighting, with help from American air and naval forces. He also said he is not particularly concerned about North Korea's conventional military power, which is often reported to be substantial.

"Frankly, this is an army that's starving. The average North Korea, at this point, is seven inches shorter than his South Korean counterpart. This is a country where the famine of the mid-1990s has affected the physical and even intellectual development of those that are now coming into the zone who would be eligible for military service. So this is a country whose conventional forces and capabilities are really, I think, declining," he said.

Still, Gates said he is concerned about North Korea's continuing efforts, in defiance of international sanctions, to develop nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. "We're watching them very closely, and I hope they don't make any stupid mistakes," said Gates.

Secretary Gates spoke during a visit to Fort Drum in New York State, where many of the soldiers have served in Iraq, and some are preparing to return there, or for possible deployment to Afghanistan.

[FuckDaFakes]

Ok fine.
Il take a back seat in this one.
If its your 'job' to analyse eastern asia then fine. You do know more than me but when it comes to being just downright nasty im going to stand up.
You think i dont know that my grammar isnt the best, you think i am proud of that ?
Well im not so that is where you need to make some changes.


Anyway i still stand by the fact that if Amercia was to go into action then Britain and many other countries would follow. United Nations would step in and it would be like Bosnia all over again but with the risk of nukes and chemical warfare.

That is what i personally believe.

[R@ndomH3ro]

Nigerian oil attacks

this is where I come in

:lol: :lol:

[christo-f]

Ok fine.
Il take a back seat in this one.
If its your 'job' to analyse eastern asia then fine. You do know more than me but when it comes to being just downright nasty im going to stand up.
You think i dont know that my grammar isnt the best, you think i am proud of that ?
Well im not so that is where you need to make some changes.


Anyway i still stand by the fact that if Amercia was to go into action then Britain and many other countries would follow. United Nations would step in and it would be like Bosnia all over again but with the risk of nukes and chemical warfare.

That is what i personally believe.

That's all good man, truly.

Opinions and beliefs are like arseholes, we all got one. Many times a dork like me with all the "facts" have been proven wrong by a bloke who goes on instinct and gut. The fact you have an interest is more than most have, which means you're way ahead of the pack already.

Read bro, read as much as you can get your hands on. It is your key.

Gut and knowledge builds kings.

[christo-f]

this is where I come in

:lol: :lol:

Haha, BULLSHIT.

[R@ndomH3ro]

Yeah, you are right. Coming on here an talking about work stuff is gay. No one would understand anyways.

[lord_casek]

Yeah, you are right. Coming on here an talking about work stuff is gay. No one would understand anyways.


Sneak coming into work

http://i31.tinypic.com/5b507.jpg

[christo-f]

Yeah, you are right. Coming on here an talking about work stuff is gay. No one would understand anyways.

Yeah, you have quite a valid point there. I'm just one of those nerds that loves geopol/IR too much and can't shut up about it. I really got to take a step back some times.

I may have been a few jugs of margarita down range last night when posting those last two...

[R@ndomH3ro]

the floor is lava

[christo-f]

Most awesomest and rational thing I've heard HC say yet.

KJI would have HATED hearing that too.




Clinton dismisses N. Korean threats as bid to get attention




By Hwang Doo-hyong
WASHINGTON, July 20 (Yonhap) -- U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton downplayed North Korea's nuclear and missile threats Monday, saying Pyongyang's recent provocations are meant to attract attention from the Obama administration.

"They're no real threat to us," Clinton told the ABC news program "Good Morning America."

"We know that our allies Japan and South Korea are very concerned, but we share information," she said. "They watch what we watch and understand what's really going on there."

Her remarks came amid heightening tensions in Northeast Asia as the U.N. Security Council slapped fresh sanctions on North Korea Thursday by listing five North Korean officials and as many North Korean firms subject to a travel ban and asset freeze for their involvement in nuclear and missile development programs.

The additional sanctions were imposed under the U.N. Resolution 1874, adopted in early June after North Korea's second nuclear test on May 25.

In the interview with the ABC News from India, Clinton said North Korea's strategy to get attention with provocations will not pay off.

"What we've seen is this constant demand for attention, and maybe it's the mother in me or the experience that I've had with small children and unruly teenagers and people who are demanding attention," she said. "We weren't going to give the North Koreans the satisfaction they were looking for, which is to try to elevate them again to center stage."

"Don't give it to them," Clinton said. "They don't deserve it. They are acting out in a way to send a message that is not a message we're interested in receiving."

Clinton's remarks are in line with her speech made last week to call for patience in dealing with North Korea.

In the speech prior to her trip to India and Thailand, Clinton emphasized the need to develop "a tougher joint effort toward the complete and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," adding, "Cultivating these partnerships and their full range takes time and patience; it also takes persistence."

Kurt Campbell, U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, said earlier in the day in Seoul that the U.S. is preparing a "comprehensive package" for the North in case Pyongyang takes "irreversible" steps for its denuclearization.

Campbell is in Seoul to meet with officials on ways to persuade North Korea to return to the stalled six-party talks on ending its nuclear weapons programs. He also visited Tokyo prior to accompanying Clinton to the annual ASEAN Regional Forum in Phuket, Thailand, Thursday.

Clinton is scheduled to meet with her Asian counterparts on the Thai resort island to discuss North Korea and other security issues, but has no plans to meet with North Korean representatives, according to U.S. officials.

North Korea reportedly will send an ambassador-at-large in lieu of Foreign Minister Pak Ui-chun.

North Korea's ceremonial head of state, Kim Yong-nam, president of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly, said last week that the six-party talks "came to a permanent end" because the U.S. and others refused to respect North Korea's "sovereign rights."

Philip Crowley, assistant secretary of state for public affairs, told a daily news briefing that Campbell's remarks reflect the changing environment in dealing with North Korea.

"We do have a new situation, so I think that Assistant Secretary Campbell's, you know, comments reflect the fact that we do have a kind of a different reality at the present time, but we are obviously willing to do things if North Korea themselves does their part, which obviously is coming back to a negotiating process, reaffirming their obligations under the 2005 agreement and taking irreversible steps towards denuclearization," Crowley said.

Crowley said that "the ball is in North Korea's court," urging North Korea to return to six-party talks and take concrete steps for denuclearization.

"I don't think that we are against the concept of action for action, but first and foremost, we need to see North Korea come back -- in other words, if they come back to a negotiation, we're not going to reward them for that step --and that's, I think, a difference reflecting, you know, just the reality of current situation," he said.

Crowley told foreign correspondents here Friday, "We are aggressively implementing the provisions of 1874 and we are continuing doing things that we believe have an impact on North Korea" until the North returns to the six-party talks.

[Telo]

Am i correct in saying that this has been going on for years? North Korea dances around the fact of opening up a bit and having more involvement in six party talks etc, but always returns to their secretive state?

Granted i dont know if they have a certain agenda behind doing this but it seems to be a just a cyclical scenario that we go through all the time.

[christo-f]

You are right, just the other way around, though. They get all threatening and isolationist, test a few missiles and nukes and then return to the table looking for concessions from the other players. Right now ROK is offering 40 billion over three years to end their nuke prog, as an example.

This behaviour keeps people at arms length, makes the leadership look tough to their people and can exact concessions for the broke and underdeveloped country that they are.

[Telo]

It sure will be an interesting day when KJL kicks the bucket. Who knows how his son will handle the responsibilities. Hopefully he will be a bit more open. He's been known to of traveled across the globe so hopefully that interaction with contemporary culture will have a positive affect on his policy making.

[NewAccount12345]

this makes me smile actually

[christo-f]

Funniest thing I've read in years. IR at its classiest, looks like Clinton's earlier comments (posted above) hit their intended mark.



North Korea calls Clinton vulgar, unintelligent


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SEOUL (Reuters) – North Korea, bristling at being described by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as behaving like an unruly child, responded in kind Thursday, calling her vulgar and less then clever.
Clinton is in Thailand for a major regional security meeting where she is urging governments to keep pressing North Korea to give up itsnuclear weapons program and enforce sanctions against the reclusive state.
"She has made a spate of vulgar remarks unbecoming for her position everywhere she went since she was sworn in," North Korea's KCNA news agency quoted a foreign ministry spokesman as saying.
It said her comments earlier in the week that North Korean behavior such as a recent spate of missile launches was like an unruly child demanding attention "suggests she is by no means intelligent."
"We cannot but regard Mrs. Clinton as a funny lady as she likes to utter such rhetoric, unaware of the elementary etiquette in the international community.
"Sometimes she looks like a primary schoolgirl and sometimes a pensioner going shopping," the report added.
"It is our view that she can make even a little contribution to the implementation of the U.S. administration's foreign policy as secretary of State only when she has understanding of the world, to begin with."
The impoverished state insists that it is only trying to develop an atomic weapon to defend itself from what it considers as a hostile United States.
However, many analysts say North Korea's autocratic leadership under sickly ruler Kim Jong-il sees a nuclear arsenal as the one asset it can use to extract worthwhile concessions from the outside world without putting its own position at home at risk.
North Korea in April announced its second nuclear test, incurring more international sanctions.
It has sent a low-ranking official to this week's ASEAN Regional Forum in Phuket who told his Thai hosts that Pyongyang did not want to become a punchbag at the security meeting. (Reporting by Jonathan Thatcher; Editing by David Fox)

[Telo]

KJL gets yacht blocked..

[Telo]

ROME (Reuters) - Italy has blocked the sale of two luxury yachts which police say were destined for North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, in violation of international sanctions on his isolated communist state.

Financial police in the city of Lucca in central Italy said the vessels were worth nearly 13 million euros ($18 million) and had been purchased by an Austrian intermediary from the Azimut-Benetti boatyard, one of the world's leading yachtmakers.

The Austrian intermediary then ceded the contract to a Chinese company, which in turn paid a Hong Kong business to take delivery of the vessels, police said.

"The difficulty was tracing it back to a violation of the sanctions," said Colonel Antonio Leone, the Finance Police's commander in Lucca. Asked if Kim was the intended final recipient of the vessels, he said: "It is an irrefutable fact."

"There has been a thorough investigation, partly in Austria, backed up by confessions and investigative breakthroughs."

The yachts were initially confiscated by Italy's Economic Development Ministry but have since been returned to the boatyard, which has been allowed to keep the deposit.

Azimut-Benetti is not accused of wrongdoing and has cooperated fully in the investigation, police said.

The sale of luxury goods to North Korea is banned under a U.N. resolution in retaliation for the country's nuclear testing program. The U.N. Security Council unanimously voted to widen its sanctions after North Korea's May 25 nuclear test.

Despite the poverty of his tightly-controlled country, Kim is said by intelligence sources to live a life of luxury. He reportedly uses yachts to host lavish receptions.

South Korean television said this month he had life-threatening pancreatic cancer, citing information gathered from Chinese and South Korean intelligence sources.

The report fueled speculation about the health of the 67-year-old, the future of his communist dynasty and who will make decisions about its nuclear programs.

(Additional reporting by Tim Castle in London; editing by Andrew Roche)

[DPMS556]

The united states is not going to anything military to any country that possesses nuclear weapons. Period !!!!!

[christo-f]

DPRK does not yet, by all accounts possess a nuclear weapon.

What they have tested was a device (probably the size of a medium sized car). A weapon is something you can attack another country/someone with. DPRK is not close to that yet, as far as anyone can tell.

But say they did, what are you basing your opinion on?

[Ferris Bueller]

"Sometimes she looks like a primary schoolgirl and sometimes a pensioner going shopping," the report added.



I was going to post this, but you got it. I LOLed at the "pensioner going shopping" comment, too.

[christo-f]

N. Korea calls for new 'specific' form of dialogue



SEOUL, July 27 (Yonhap) -- North Korea rejected on Monday regional demands that it return to the six-party denuclearization talks and called for a new approach to resolve the current diplomatic stalemate, in an apparent attempt to draw bilateral dialogue with the United States.

In a statement from its foreign ministry spokesman, North Korea criticized the members of the ASEAN Regional Forum who called on Pyongyang to rejoin the multilateral nuclear talks during their meeting last week, accusing them of "blindly" responding to the call presented by some members of the talks.

"As a party concerned, we know what should be done to resolve the problem far better than anyone else," the unidentified spokesman said in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.

"There is a specific and reserved form of dialogue that can address the current situation," he said.

The statement followed after the North Korean ambassador to the United Nations, Sin Sun-ho, suggested Pyongyang wants to open dialogue with Washington.

"We are not against any negotiations on issues of common concern," the North Korean diplomat was quoted as saying Friday by Japan's Kyodo News agency.

The communist nation has been refusing to attend the six-nation talks on ending its nuclear ambitions since late last year, and declared in April that the nuclear negotiations were permanently over. The talks involve the two Koreas, the United States, Japan, China and Russia.

[russell jones]

HC with some truth! Who would of thunk it?

[george jetson]

what do you all think would happen if somehow word got in to the north korean people about how crazy/disfunctional its leaders and government are. if they knew that south koreans lived with plenty of food, electricity, automobiles, and so many of the basic freedoms that north koreans cant even imagine having? would there be revolution? would they do nothing?

[Telo]

EDIT**

I typed a huge response about every aspect i could think of about DPRK culture but what it boils down to is fear of state.. Imagine living in a society where no matter what you think was right could be punished by death..

[christo-f]

what do you all think would happen if somehow word got in to the north korean people about how crazy/disfunctional its leaders and government are. if they knew that south koreans lived with plenty of food, electricity, automobiles, and so many of the basic freedoms that north koreans cant even imagine having? would there be revolution? would they do nothing?

I don't think even a North Korean could answer that.

It would be written off as anti-DPRK propaganda anyway.

The country is either brainwashed, completely beaten down or both.

[Telo]

Well the DPRK hasnt always been what it is today. The country still contains elders that were around before the Korean War so I would imagine that they have some conciousness of what other peoples lives are like. Also, the amount of border defectors you'd have to imagine that the with all the hundreds of miles of border with China, Russia, and SK, they would of set up some type of underground network of communication to teh outside world by now. Ive often heard of some people living in border cities with China that have snuck in cell phones. They are just close enough to China to pick up Chinese cell phone towers to coomunicate with friends and family on the other side.

[Telo]

That last post of mine was in a very drunken state so it probably sounds like a 6th grader wrote it...

anyway..

Thought this was mildly humorous.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/5912485/North-Korea-opens-US-style-fast-food-restaurant---but-dont-mention-the-hamburger.html

[christo-f]

Sounds like the DPRK leadership is under some fairly extreme stress at the moment.

Good.



N.Korean TV Depicts 'Wretched' Lives in the South
The official North Korean broadcaster on Wednesday claimed the majority of South Koreans "live in extremely wretched conditions." North Korean Central Television aired a 10-minute patchwork of edited South Korean TV clips about the difficult living conditions of the underprivileged in South Korea to illustrate the claim.

The program titled "South Korea in Crisis, Wretched Livelihood of the People," had been edited together from clips of MBC, KBS, SBS and YTN about homeless people, unemployment, redevelopment, a disastrous clash between protesters and police in Yongsan on Jan. 20, 2009, abandoned elderly people, and serial killings.

"Today, the South Korean economy is miserably collapsing under heavy weight of the worldwide oil crisis and the financial crisis initiated in the U.S.," the voiceover said. "The absolute majority of the South Korean people, who are standing on the edge of a precipice due to a serious economic crisis, live in extremely wretched conditions."

It was unprecedented for North Korea to air a 10-minute program about the South. As if to prove that the scenes were real, the channel showed the names of the South Korean broadcasters and their program titles.

A South Korean government official said, "It seems the North is attempting to prevent North Koreans who are suffering heavy economic difficulties such as food shortage from aspiring to live in South Korea and appease their discontent with the regime by making them believe that South Korea is a bad place to live."

Discontent is reportedly rising in North Korea after people were press-ganged into a "150-day struggle" of farm work. Some 16,000 North Korean refugees lived in South Korea as of June this year, and they are apparently keeping in touch with relatives in the North through brokers in China and other countries.

[george jetson]

Well the DPRK hasnt always been what it is today. The country still contains elders that were around before the Korean War so I would imagine that they have some conciousness of what other peoples lives are like. Also, the amount of border defectors you'd have to imagine that the with all the hundreds of miles of border with China, Russia, and SK, they would of set up some type of underground network of communication to teh outside world by now. Ive often heard of some people living in border cities with China that have snuck in cell phones. They are just close enough to China to pick up Chinese cell phone towers to coomunicate with friends and family on the other side.

interesting...

[shai]

Sounds like the DPRK leadership is under some fairly extreme stress at the moment.

Good.



N.Korean TV Depicts 'Wretched' Lives in the South
The official North Korean broadcaster on Wednesday claimed the majority of South Koreans "live in extremely wretched conditions." North Korean Central Television aired a 10-minute patchwork of edited South Korean TV clips about the difficult living conditions of the underprivileged in South Korea to illustrate the claim.

The program titled "South Korea in Crisis, Wretched Livelihood of the People," had been edited together from clips of MBC, KBS, SBS and YTN about homeless people, unemployment, redevelopment, a disastrous clash between protesters and police in Yongsan on Jan. 20, 2009, abandoned elderly people, and serial killings.

"Today, the South Korean economy is miserably collapsing under heavy weight of the worldwide oil crisis and the financial crisis initiated in the U.S.," the voiceover said. "The absolute majority of the South Korean people, who are standing on the edge of a precipice due to a serious economic crisis, live in extremely wretched conditions."

It was unprecedented for North Korea to air a 10-minute program about the South. As if to prove that the scenes were real, the channel showed the names of the South Korean broadcasters and their program titles.

A South Korean government official said, "It seems the North is attempting to prevent North Koreans who are suffering heavy economic difficulties such as food shortage from aspiring to live in South Korea and appease their discontent with the regime by making them believe that South Korea is a bad place to live."

Discontent is reportedly rising in North Korea after people were press-ganged into a "150-day struggle" of farm work. Some 16,000 North Korean refugees lived in South Korea as of June this year, and they are apparently keeping in touch with relatives in the North through brokers in China and other countries.

Man, I would LOVE this shit if it weren't so tragic. How many people even own TVs in the DPRK? My guess is probably in the neighborhood of...four or five? The rest of them are like "Television? Is that something you can eat?"

[Telo]

Wow. The slaying of Christians in the street.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8167644.stm

[christo-f]

DPRK sunk an ROK patrol boat on the Northern Limit Line tonight.

Looks like a torpedo hit, maybe.

More than likely in order to create a negotiating position for 6 party talks.